THE 11% SOLUTION:

Down by Seven with a Quarter To Go: Davis, after delivering his best punches, sees Simon still within striking distance. (James Bemis, California Political Review)

Poll after poll confirms the race for governor remains close. Like the scrappy underdog refusing to quit against the bigger team and the hostile crowd, Simon finds himself down by only seven points — in the notoriously Democrat-friendly Field poll — with yet another quarter to play.

How is this possible? Well, for one thing incumbent Governor Gray Davis inspires little but loathing among Californians. Field reported his support at 39 percent, a pathetic number for any incumbent, and more so in a largely Democrat state. Davis looks eminently beatable despite his fat campaign treasury.

Though we've been skeptical and remain so about the possibility of a Republican winning a statewide race inn CA, we have to admit that one of the classic signs that an incumbent is going to lose is that they poll under 40%. A whole lot of Democrats are going to have to vote one-handed, because they'll be holding their noses with the other. Posted by Orrin Judd at September 30, 2002 1:08 PM