HUNGRY LIKE THE WOLF:

Hispanics may be hungering for GOP (RUBEN NAVARRETTE, 09/06/2002 , The Dallas Morning News)

Cynics determined to downplay President Bush's support among Hispanic voters cling to three assumptions: that any support is limited to how the commander in chief has fought the war on terrorism and now might fight a war against Iraq; that Hispanics backing Mr. Bush are assimilated and wealthy and wooed by tax cuts; and that support for Mr. Bush doesn't transfer to other Republicans.

All three assumptions may be false, according to a very significant poll of 1,000 Hispanic adults by McLaughlin & Associates' Opiniones Latinas conducted on behalf of the Washington-based Latino Coalition.

According to the survey, Mr. Bush's approval rating among Hispanics registered to vote stands at 68.4 percent. That is consistent with Mr. Bush's overall approval rating, which hovers between 65 percent and 70 percent. [...]

These Hispanic boosters for Mr. Bush aren't who you think they are. Assimilated? When asked whether they preferred to be interviewed in English or Spanish, only 45 percent chose English. (Among those who chose Spanish, Mr. Bush's approval rating shot up to 74 percent. It was 62 percent among English speakers.) [...]

The biggest surprise is that Mr. Bush's Hispanic appeal appears to have coattails after all. True: More than twice as many respondents identified with the Democratic Party as with the Republican Party – 48 percent to 23 percent. But when the question turned to which party's candidates voters would support in congressional elections this fall, the Republicans fared better. Democrats came out on top by only 12 percentage points, 44 percent to 32 percent.

In response to a similar question in last year's poll, Democrats enjoyed a 34-point advantage.

Patrick Ruffini sent this but unfortunately isn't commenting on it. Two thoughts occur to us: (1) This is the kind of swing to the GOP that will need to show up on election day if Republicans are to swim against the midterm tide. (2) Given the historic animus between blacks and Latinos, this could be an especially inopportune moment for the Democrats to be offering their first black statewide candidate in Texas, Ron Kirk. If Latinos do feel comfortable with George W. Bush and the GOP generally, as the poll seems to indicate, then Mr. Kirk's ethnicity, long thought to be a big advantage in this race, may prove a significant hindrance. Posted by Orrin Judd at September 9, 2002 10:19 PM