BULL MOOSE IN THE BALANCE:

Frist sees GOP capturing Senate (Donald Lambro, 9/08/02, THE WASHINGTON TIMES)

[Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee] said the Republican Party«s prospects in the upcoming Senate elections were changed dramatically by the latest polls in two pivotal battleground states that showed the GOP«s candidates leading and with stronger momentum.

In Missouri, Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan«s support has plunged seven points over the past several weeks against the Republican Party«s nominee, former Rep. Jim Talent, who now has the edge in the race, according to a St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll. [...]

The Democrats« situation is even worse in New Jersey, a heavily Democratic state where Sen. Robert G. Torricelli has nose-dived in the polls against Republican Doug Forrester, a little-known businessman and former mayor. [...]

Independent surveys and Mr. Forrester«s own polls show him leading by 12 to 13 points. Mr. Torricelli«s latest poll shows the two men tied at 40 percent each, a dramatic change since January when a Quinnipiac University poll found the senator leading his challenger, 50 percent to 26 percent. [...]

Democrats are also struggling in South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson is in a dead heat against Republican Rep. John Thune and in Minnesota, where Sen. Paul Wellstone is running two to three points ahead of former Republican Mayor Norm Coleman. The Democrats in these and other races have been pouring a lot of money into campaign ads during the summer to support their candidates, but Mr. Frist said "their numbers barely moved." The NRSC for the most part has held back on its ad spending until the Labor Day weekend when Republican strategists believe that voters began paying more attention to the campaigns. In a slide show briefing on the races, Mr. Frist said that because there were more vulnerable Democratic incumbents than there were for the Republicans, it would give the NRSC more maneuvering room to divert more money to second-tier races. "It gives me a little more room to take a little more risk," the senator said.

Barring fabulous economic news over the next seven weeks this sounds fairly delusional, but it would set up some high drama. Even if they win three of these four races (thanks to Christopher Badeaux for correcting my math) they still have to hold NH, AR and TX. Suppose two of those seats change hands too. That gives the GOP a 50-49-1 edge and puts John McCain back in play. He can switch parties, giving the Democrats back control of the Senate, and immediately become the hero of the Democrat party and the front runner for their 2004 presidential nomination against George W. Bush who he loathes. It's a tower of "ifs" but boy would that be fun. (If, that is, you're a political junkie with no real life.)
Posted by Orrin Judd at September 8, 2002 6:09 PM