LOOK MA, NO EFFORT :

Sununu won't go negative without a big slip in polls (JOHN DiSTASO, Manchester Union Leader)

Confident in polling numbers that show him with a strong lead in the GOP U.S. Senate primary, John E. Sununu and his campaign staff plan no changes in what they call a positive, non-confrontational campaign.

Sununu supporters say the low-key strategy should not be mistaken for laziness. The candidate and his campaign staff and volunteers are working hard canvassing the state. They say that won't change.

"Bob Smith is in a dilemma," said [David] Carney. "His name identification is 100 percent and his job approval rating is 60 percent. People say they know him and believe he's done a good job, but they're not voting for him. That's a problem." [...]

But Smith supporters are skeptical of what they call Sununu's 'Rose Garden' or 'rope-a-dope' strategy.

One veteran Republican who backs Smith said Sununu appears to be trying to "sit on the ball and run out the clock--and it's pretty early for that. A lot of people feel, 'The other guy just can't beat me.' Maybe John has a little of that."

There seems to be a huge amount of risk in Sununu's strategy. All the polls have shown him beating Bob Smith by a significant margin, but they still show Smith to be reasonably popular. In fact, while the sole logic of the Sununu candidacy is that he'll have an easier time beating Jeanne Shaheen in the general, the polls show Smith would probably beat her too. So Mr. Sununu has to depend on the turnout of enough voters who feel like Senator Smith betrayed the party when he left it briefly several years ago or who feel like Smith can't win in November. Meanwhile, Mr. Smith has a committed conservative base that is fairly passionate about him and that will certainly turn out. Obviously you have to expect Sununu to win, but I remain deeply dubious about the wisdom of his strategy. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 9, 2002 10:29 AM