HOUSE OF THE SETTING SAUDS :

Why the Sauds Will Stay, Part Two (H. D. Miller, August 14, 2002, Travelling Shoes)

[N]o matter how angry the American street, no matter how bad the demographics, no matter how bad the deficits, or the per capita income, or the ridiculous, gold-plated lifestyles of the princes, the House of Saud will maintain control as long as the American government supports them. And the Americans aren't leaving the Sauds to fend for themselves anytime soon. So get that idea out of your head. [...]

Most of the regular reasons cited [for "why the Americans aren't leaving the Sauds to fend for themselves."] have at least some measure of truth: Oil is important. The personal relationship between the Bushes and the Sauds carries some weight. The Arabists in the State Department have a voice. The military is used to working with the Sauds. All of this things matter to some extent

But the most important reason why the Sauds aren't leaving, is that the U.S. government, at all levels and all branches, hates, hates, hates uncertainty.

Now, far be it from me to argue with Mr. Miller. He actually knows whereof he speaks while I'm merely overly read. And casual reading is no substitute for genuine knowledge. But I couldn't help noticing three stories over the past few days that, in addition to problems that Mr. Miller has already addressed, seem to lay out a potential road map for how we'd get to the point where the U.S. government would disfavor Saud stability :
Difficult times for Saudi Arabia : Saudi Arabia's oil revenues are shrinking (Frank Gardner, 11 August, 2002, BBC)

The country's biggest problem is the economy - there simply are not enough jobs to go around.

A huge portion of the national budget is swallowed up by civil service salaries, often for people who put in two hours work a day in token jobs that contribute little to the economy.

Meanwhile, oil revenues are shrinking in real terms, while the population is growing at nearly 4% a year.

Saudis 'should reconsider US ties' (BBC, 16 August, 2002)

A Saudi newspaper close to the government has called for a review of the kingdom's long-standing and close relationship with the United States.

9/11 families sue Saudi princes, firms (MSNBC NEWS SERVICES, 8/16/02)

Relatives of some of the victims of the Sept. 11 terrorist attack filed a $100 trillion class-action lawsuit Thursday against Saudi officials and institutions, charging that they financed Osama bin Laden's terrorist network.

THE SUIT, modeled after action filed against Libya in the Pan Am Flight 103 disaster, seeks to cripple banks, charities and some members of the Saudi royal family, as well as gain vengeance for the families of those who perished, the plaintiffs said.

So, if we add together all of the various problems confronting the Sauds, here's what we get :

(1) Succession problems--elderly and ill rulers and a plethora of ambitious princes has been a recipe for unrest since the first king took his throne.

(2) Political differences among the princes : there seem to be two (at least two) broad factions within the Saud family, one that's pro-Western, the other more closely aligned with radical Islam.

(3) The decline of oil : whether quickly or gradually, oil is destined to decline in importance and therefore in value. Vast reserves of oil in Russia and Central Asia and new technologies and fuel standards in the developed world are going to inevitably hammer the Sauds, who depend on oil revenue to fund their kingdom and make it palatable to the people of Arabia.

(4) Privatization of American foreign policy : between the rising chorus of anti-Saud rhetoric in the American media and the massive lawsuit filed by 9-11 families, private citizens are poised to become such an irritant to Saudi/American relations that the official views of our State Department just won't matter much anymore. It's easy to dismiss the potential effects of this lawsuit, but the information that could be brought forward, as we saw in things like the Libya suit, the tobacco suits, and the MicroSoft trial, might be enormously embarrassing. In addition, it could become impossible for Saudi princes and government officials to travel in the West for fear of being hauled into U.S. courts to answer subpoenas.

(5) Regional instability : It certainly seems like Arab leaders have made an implicit promise to their people, one that it has been possible to believe in since the Oslo Accords, that the Palestinian/Israeli conflict would be settled fairly soon and in Palestine's favor. This promise seems increasingly dubious. Not only that but Israel seems to have become more radicalized over the past year or so and more willing to use force against its enemies. This is on display now in Palestine but could soon be evident in Lebanon, Iraq, perhaps even Syria in the not too distant future. At the same time the United States appears intent on affecting a regime change in Iraq, quite possibly through force, and is applying pressure for regime change or reform from Egypt to Pakistan. Besides proving humiliating to the Islamic world in general, these kinds of impositions of Western will upon Muslim governments must call into question the permanence of all such regimes and make revolutions which are now unthinkable at least appear plausible.

Any one of these trends might be possible to deal with if you're the autocratic ruler of Saudi Arabia and possible to ignore if you're a State Department Arabist. Even a few of them converging might still be survivable and explain-awayable, for the King and the bureaucrat respectively. But can we really say with any degree of confidence that a Saudi Arabia that is being buffeted by dynastic, economic, and regional unrest at the same time that it is growing alienated from the U.S. and its oil is losing its importance to us, will still be a regime that we will seek to prop up? Recall that all of this may be occurring against a backdrop of a domestic press here in America that's growing hostile to the Sauds and potentially a widening war between America/Israel and Islam. Given all of this, wouldn't it take a pretty strong government to withstand these negative forces and is there anything that should lead us to believe that the kind of oppressive kleptocracy that the Sauds maintain in Arabia is such a strong government? Despite the inestimable Mr. Miller's assurances, I have to say, I have my doubts. Posted by Orrin Judd at August 17, 2002 11:18 AM