HISTORY'S OVER :

Democracy's Quiet Victory (JOSHUA MURAVCHIK, 8/19/02, NY Times)

A remarkable chain of events in recent months offers cause for cheer amid the bleak headlines of violence and economic distress. It suggests that democracy is completing its triumph as a global norm, endangering the remaining pockets of authoritarianism.

A decade ago, Samuel Huntington coined the label "third wave" for the trend of democratization that had begun in Portugal in 1974. The first wave had lasted from the American revolution until the breakup of empires at the end of World War I; the second followed from decolonization after World War II. Each of these waves was followed by an ebb tide as fascism spread over Europe in the 20's and 30's and Communism and forms of autocratic socialism took hold in the third world in the 60's and 70's.

Mr. Huntington's metaphor invited expectations that the third wave, too, would recede. Something quite different has happened. Sure, many of the former Soviet republics are stuck in dictatorship. But more telling is the case of Argentina, where the politicians are dithering as the economy collapses, yet the generals have made no move to reclaim power - or the situation in Eastern Europe, where former Communists fill the statehouses yet no one tries to undo democracy. Freedom House reports that the number of freely elected governments in the world has continued to climb, reaching 121 of the world's 192 independent countries this year.

Democracy has become an expectation, its claims hard to resist.

Perhaps the main reason not to go to war with Saddam, though none of the opponents seem to recognize it, is that states like Iraq are doomed anyway. And not just Iraq but Palestine, Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia too. May as well throw in Communist China too while we're at it. The combination of their inability to satisfy the material wants of their peoples and the fact that, thanks to the telecommunications revolution, those same people can see exactly how much abundance free nations enjoy, must eventually destabilize these governments to the point where they can not tamp down domestic unrest. George W. Bush has already demonstrated one of our greatest weapons when he simply wrote off Yassir Arafat. We should adopt a similar attitude towards all these countries, an air of disdain for the temporary dictatorship they labor under and an eager anticipation of the inevitable day when they will be free.
Posted by Orrin Judd at August 21, 2002 3:16 PM