BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID :

Economy Stirs G.O.P. Worry in House Races (ADAM NAGOURNEY, 8/06/02, NY Times)

The factors behind the perceived shift include a spike in the number of Americans who told pollsters that the nation was heading in the wrong direction, a slight but steady erosion in the popularity of President Bush and rising disapproval of Congress over the last month.

"Up through late May and early June, through WorldCom, I was arguing that we were looking at the most pro-incumbent environment that I've seen in a 22-year career," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who has conducted regular national polls of the electorate this year. "What has happened is that, because of WorldCom and the stock market collapse, these key tracking numbers have changed very quickly. We are looking at a much more traditional off-year election--which means the House is in play. Which I never really believed in June."

Of course they're going to lose control of the House, and they may go down by as many as five or six seats in the Senate. It's a mid-term election and the President's party historically takes a beating. That's why it was so important to rack up the legislative victories that they did this year. 2003 and 2004 are going to be a veto-fest and then W. has to convince voters to return him and the party to office.
Posted by Orrin Judd at August 6, 2002 9:33 AM