GUS GRISSOM'S POOCH :

Political equation holds up well for state governor races : And formula says it looks like Gray Davis will be re-elected for a second term (JAMES DOTI, July 8, 2002, Orange County Register)

A forecasting equation we recently developed accurately predicted 14 of the 15 gubernatorial elections in California since 1950. [...]

Given the explanatory variables in the equation, it should be clear what it's saying about the upcoming election between Gray Davis and Bill Simon. Davis will be helped by all three factors. First, he's running for re-election.

That largely explains why Davis is expected to accumulate a war chest estimated at $50 million for his re-election drive. Second, his party's not running for a third consecutive term, and, third, the bigger-than-expected victory of Davis over Lungren in 1998 will help Davis in 2002. When all of these factors are put together, the equation calls for Davis to receive a winning 56.3 percent of the vote in November.

Republicans are looking at Gray Davis's problems and getting starry-eyed about the possibility of beating him. But they underestimate the difficulty of winning in a statewide race in what has essentially become a one party state. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 8, 2002 3:24 PM