SOAR? :

Deficit Likely Above $100B (AP, June 15, 2002)

The federal deficit probably will soar beyond $100 billion this year, Congress' top budget analyst says, escalating a problem that both parties hope to capitalize on in this November's elections.

In its latest monthly review of Treasury Department data, the Congressional Budget Office said Friday that this year's shortfall should ``end up well above $100 billion.'' The red ink for the fiscal year running through Sept. 30 would be the first since 1997.

Dan Crippen, director of the nonpartisan office, said the shortfall could near $150 billion. That is similar to expectations of Republican and Democratic analysts and of private forecasters.

So let's see if we have this straight? We've got a wartime deficit of about 5% of the overall budget. And later the article describes the dire effect of this :

In March, the budget office projected the cumulative surplus from 2003 through 2012 would total $2.38 trillion. With rising spending and reduced revenue, however, that figure now looks likelier to fall between $1 trillion and $2 trillion, Crippen said.

Am I missing something or don't those numbers suggest that the deficit is a minor and temporary phenomenon?

UPDATE :
Opening A Trillion- Dollar Hole (David S. Broder, June 16, 2002, Washington Post)
Hey, David Broder just figured out where that extra Trillion dollars we're collecting is coming from : the estate tax. So we can give it back now and the budget will be balanced in those out years. (Though that doesn't seem to be the point of his essay.)

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 16, 2002 9:17 AM