SHOOTING THE MOON :

Look at Key Senate 2002 Races (The Associated Press, June 7, 2002)

A look at 10 states that could be critical in deciding whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate after the 2002 elections.

Here's how they rank them :

TOP DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

ARKANSAS: Incumbent Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson vs. Democrat Mark Pryor, state attorney general.

COLORADO: Incumbent Republican Sen. Wayne Allard vs. Tom Strickland, a former U.S. attorney

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Sen. Bob Smith or Rep. John Sununu vs. Governor Jeanne Shaheen

TEXAS: Democrat Ron Kirk vs. Attorney General John Cornyn

NORTH CAROLINA: Elizabeth Dole vs. Erskine Bowles

TOP GOP TARGETS

IOWA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin vs. GOP Rep. Greg Ganske.

MINNESOTA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone vs. Norm Coleman, former mayor of St. Paul

MISSOURI: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan vs. Jim Talent, a former member of Congress who narrowly lost the governor's race in 2000.

SOUTH DAKOTA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson vs. Rep. John Thune.

GEORGIA: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Max Cleland vs. either Rep. Saxby Chambliss or state lawmaker Bob Irvin

In a normal mid-term election, you'd expect several of the weak GOP incumbents to get knocked off and the dubious Democrat incumbents to pull through. What the war does is make all the incumbents somewhat safer--because of peoples' more positive feelings towards government and a reluctance to rock the boat too much. So the really interesting races are the open seats and there you have to think that the fact that Texas is a Republican state will carry Cornyn through and the Clinton baggage may prove too much for Bowles to shake in what remains a conservative, though not necessarily Republican, North Carolina.

What remains to be seen is whether President Bush can translate his personal popularity into support for his party. In the past couple cycles where popular presidents had this kind of opportunity Reagan chose not to put his prestige on the line and Clinton, despite his poll numbers in 1998, was considered a liability by Democrat candidates. For Bush to make a decisive difference this time he'd have to first of all make the effort and second of all have a set of new proposals for which he could claim he needed GOP assistance in Congress. Both of these steps are far more daring than anything the President or Karl Rove seem willing to attempt. They seem willing to settle for winning re-election in 2004, which means that the significant portions of Bush presidency may effectively be over by the end of this year, just as the Reagan presidency (with the exception of tax reform) was over by the end of 1982.

It is still, of course, well worth retaining appointment power (particularly where the judiciary is concerned) and oversight of regulation and wielding the veto pen, so it is not a complete waste to simply seek to keep power. Yet, these ambitions are far too niggardly. They betray a willingness to settle for competent mediocrity. Even though there are real political dangers involved in such a course, it would be heartening to say Bush and company aim high and stake their careers on real reform : privatization of Social Security; Medical Savings Accounts; flat tax; school vouchers; drastic downsizing of government--to no more than six cabinet offices; etc. Aim high and try to win big. It worked in 1994, on the electoral level, if not the legislation level. If they tried it again and won Congress while retaining the presidency they could even get some of the stuff done. 'Tis a consummation devoutly to be wished.

UPDATE :
GOP Looks to Shift Power in Senate : Republicans Aim to Gain Power in Senate Contests, Where Democrats Hold One-Vote Lead (The Associated Press, 6/07/02)

Sen. Bill Frist of Tennessee, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and a physician, says Republicans "have more patients" but Democrats "have more in intensive care" referring to Democratic incumbents in Minnesota, Missouri and South Dakota.

In addition to those three states, Republicans are looking at Democratic Sen. Max Cleland in Georgia. Democrats have their eye on Republican incumbents in Arkansas, Colorado, New Hampshire and Oregon.

The battle for control has shifted, with Republicans adjusting their target states and Democrats looking forward to the retirement of four Republican incumbents in the Carolinas, Tennessee and Texas.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 7, 2002 10:25 AM