REAL REALISM :

The End of Something (THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, June 30, 2002, NY Times)

Even if Mr. Arafat went away, and even if a majority of Israelis were ready to give his successor all of the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, the security requirements and limitations on Palestinian sovereignty that Israelis would insist upon - in the wake of the total breakdown in trust over the last year - would probably be so high that no Palestinian leader would be able to accept them.

If that is the case, it means that a negotiated two-state solution is impossible and Israel is doomed to permanent occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. And if that is the case, it means Israel will have to rule the West Bank and Gaza permanently, the way South African whites ruled blacks under apartheid. Because by 2010, if current demographic patterns hold, there will be more Palestinians in Israel, the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem than Jews. And if that is the case, it means an endless grinding conflict that poses a mortal danger to Israel.

Because there are three trends converging in the Middle East today. The first is this vicious Israeli-Palestinian war. The second is a population explosion in the Arab world, where virtually every Arab country has a population bubble of under-15-year-olds, who are marching toward a future where they will find a shortage of good jobs and a surplus of frustration. The third is an explosion of Arab satellite TV stations, the Internet and other private media.

Basically what's happening is that this Arab media explosion is taking images of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and beaming them to this population explosion, nurturing a rage against Israel, America and Jews in a whole new Arab generation. [...]

The only hope for Israel is to get out of the territories--any orderly way it can--and minimize its friction with the Arab world as the Arabs go through a wrenching internal adjustment to modernization.

There are going to be two states if for no other reason than that the Israeli population can not be allowed to become majority Muslim and the Jewish people probably can not tolerate the moral compromises necessary to administer an apartheid regime. This is the major weak spot of the Bush plan. We and Israel should immediately recognize the state of Palestine within borders we prescribe--no negotiations--and leave the Palestinians to their own, considerable, problems. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 30, 2002 8:01 AM