MEANWHILE, OUTSIDE THE NEOCON/LIBERTARIAN ECHO CHAMBER :

OFF TO THE RACES : Bush Has Base Support -- But Can He Make Them Vote? (Charlie Cook, April 30, 2002, National Journal)

To read the media accounts these days, President Bush has a real problem within his Republican base. Conservatives have myriad issues with the president, we are told, that could cost Republicans seats in the midterm election and perhaps jeopardize his re-election. That's what we're told, anyway.

But let's look at how Bush is viewed by his fellow party members. Among the 1,587 registered voters interviewed in two Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report polls conducted in April were 736 self-described Republicans. Among those Republicans, Bush had an extraordinary 93 percent job approval rating, with just seven percent disapproving. In other words, for every Republican who disapproved of Bush this month, there were 13 who approved.

Of those 736 Republicans, 68 percent said that they strongly approved of the job Bush was doing, while only two percent said that they strongly disapproved of Bush's performance. For every Republican who strongly disapproved of how Bush has done his job, there are 34 who strongly approved. [...]

If anyone can find greater party unity, as measured by job approval ratings, for a president by members of his own party in modern times, then please let me know. These are all numbers that any other recent president would have killed for.

My guess is that Bush's "base problem" hardly extends beyond the combined rolodexes of Paul Weyrich and Bill Kristol -- and maybe only those who are actually in both. (Although on second thought, there would be some John McCain types that wouldn't be on speaking terms with Weyrich.) A more likely "problem" is that there are a very small number of elites with very specific axes to grind.

The far bigger problem faces the Democrats, who have to try to gin up turn-out in their base without alienating friendly voters who approve of Bush even if only as a wartime president. And they have to do something about turnout because Bush is giving the Democrat base plenty of reason not to hate him--tariffs, Campaign Finance and the War--which basically amounts to reason to stay home in November.

Moreover, anything the Dems do to get their base mad at W is likely to get the GOP base just as angry, and self-righteously angry to boot. Recall that when Tom Daschle criticized the way in which the war was being pursued, his remarks were immediately followed by an incident that made him look unpatriotic (though I assume such was not his intent) and he looked ridiculous backing down.

Whose base problem would you rather have, Bush's or McAuliffe's?

Posted by Orrin Judd at April 30, 2002 12:57 PM