OUT OF TIME:

Waging the last campaign (Michael Barone, Jan. 5, 2004, Jewish World Review)

Presidential campaigns work best when they are geared to the circumstances of the election year. George W. Bush in 2000 conceded that the incumbent administration had produced peace and prosperity, and changed the subject. Bill Clinton in 1992 emphasized his rapport with ordinary people in contrast to an incumbent who seemed out of touch. Ronald Reagan's advocacy of sharp shifts in policy rang true when inflation seemed out of control and America in retreat around the world. The outsider Jimmy Carter was elected in 1976 after insiders had disgraced themselves.

Incumbent presidents may be stuck with themes that elected them four years before but sound irrelevant today and thus are in danger of seeming out of step with the times. Challengers have the advantage of being able to create campaigns that are up to the minute. Which makes it surprising that so few of the Democrats have put together campaigns calibrated to 2004. [...]

At the moment, Dean has run the Democratic campaign most closely adapted to the season. He has won followers not just with his opposition to the Iraq war and his contempt for Bush but with his populist rallying cry, "You have the power!" He is leading in Iowa, New Hampshire, and national polls. Wesley Clark, entering late, has largely echoed Dean's positions and tone; he hopes his military record will make him Dean's chief competitor.

But seasons change. Recent developments in Iraq and Libya suggest that the Dean and Clark strategies may be better adapted to campaign year 2003 than 2004.

So does the Democrats' desire to decide on their nominee early this time end up hurting them badly. If the Dean candidacy made sense last Summer it makes none now.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 5, 2004 08:56 AM