December 11, 2003
THE FORTUNATE DISASTER
'Prehistoric man began global warming' (12/11/03)
Measurements of ancient air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice offers evidence that humans have been changing the global climate since thousands of years before the industrial revolution. . . .So, we owe civilization to global warming? Posted by David Cohen at December 11, 2003 09:17 AMLeading the change was the revolutionary adoption, across both Europe and Asia, of agriculture and animal husbandry, Professor Ruddiman said.
Analysis of air trapped in ice cores drilled from the Antarctic ice sheet show anomalous increases in carbon dioxide levels beginning 8000 years ago - just as crop lands began to replace previously forested regions across Asia and Europe. . . .
The prehistoric practices apparently overrode a build-up of ice that models predict should have occurred from 5000 years ago.
I'll start taking the Kyoto crowd and global-warming Cassandras a lot more seriously the moment they decide to launch a long overdue "Ban the Bean" campaign, together with violent legume-burning protests, chaining themselves to vegetarian restaurant doors, and perhaps a Boston Baked Bean Party....
Posted by: Barry Meislin at December 11, 2003 10:05 AMI am reminded of the Far Side cartoon where two scientists are discussing a complex equation written on a blackboard. One of the scientist says something to the effect of "I'm a little unclear on step 3", step 3 being "then a miracle happens"
There is a huge gulf between the very interesting bit of information about a jump in carbon dioxide levels 5000 years ago and the conclusion that the land-clearing activities of early civilizations significantly affected global temperature regimes.
Some journals will publish anything.
Posted by: Jason Johnson at December 11, 2003 10:34 AMJason: Assume they're correct; in which case, so is David. Our entire civilization depended -- maybe still depends -- on elevated temperatures. God bless our environment raping forebears.
Posted by: Chris at December 11, 2003 10:41 AMOne absolute fact we know is that ice ages happen, an that they would be a disaster for us.
Besides that, te climate is a very very complicated thing. It's very difficult to see what's going on because of all the countervailing effects.
Increased CO_2 and methane from human activities should increase temperature. At least, it's very plausible. What we don't exactly know are things like
1) how much,
2) are there countervailing effects from human activities,
3) could we stop it, and
4) would there be an ice age without human effects.
John,
No kidding, I was just reading up on the effects of the Little Ice Age (a cool spell, but not a real ice age) on civilization in Europe. Pretty scary stuff.
Chris,
That is an interesting assumption, but it is only that. I just went and read the linked-to article and it appears that the point I was criticizing may not actually be part of the article that will be published, but just speculation being tossed around at the convetion.
The intellectual jump did catch my eye though. I will be defending my Masters thesis next Wednesday. If I made that sort of assumption in my conclusions without some damned good proof my committee would tear me apart.
Posted by: Jason Johnson at December 11, 2003 01:24 PM"Climates of Hunger" by Reid Bryson, who founded the environmental sciences school at Wisconsin.
Discoverer, I learned a couple days ago, of the jet stream, too.
Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 11, 2003 01:27 PMIf global warming caused civilization, then civilization will just have to go.
Posted by: Peter B at December 11, 2003 02:34 PMGood luck on your Thesis defense Jason. I just went through that this past May. It is amazing how your brain will have vapor lock at the most inopportune times. I did receive a pass however.
Posted by: bartman at December 11, 2003 02:55 PMGood luck, Jason.
Posted by: David Cohen at December 12, 2003 07:40 AM