December 10, 2003
DADDY, WHAT WERE DEMOCRATS?:
TO: Ballantine for Governor
FROM: Ed Goeas; B.J. Martino
The Tarrance Group
DATE: December 5, 2003
RE: Easley's Vulnerability Compared to Recent Defeated Democratic IncumbentsFrom our experience in Gubernatorial elections, the indications are clear that Governor Easley is vulnerable in 2004. We compared the results from a recent survey of North Carolina voter attitudes with those from surveys conducted in gubernatorial elections in Georgia (February 2002) and Mississippi (February 2003). Our analysis of the data suggests that Easley's vulnerability lies somewhere between that of Democrats Roy Barnes of Georgia in 2002 and Ronnie Musgrove of Mississippi in 2003. Both were soundly defeated.
First, it should be noted that the Georgia and Mississippi surveys were conducted in February of the election year, while the recent North Carolina survey was conducted in November of the year prior to the election year. Therefore, it should be taken into account that the Georgia and Mississippi races were three months further into the cycle than is the North Carolina race at this point. What this shows is that Governor Easley is more vulnerable at this point in the campaign than were either incumbent in Georgia or Mississippi.
Using the responses to several of the vulnerability indicators, we create an Incumbent Vulnerability Index [IVI] score. The score is equal to the "net right direction of the state" (right direction minus wrong track), plus the Democratic "generic ballot advantage" (the generic ballot asking voters if they would vote for the Republican or the Democrat for Governor), plus each incumbent's ballot score over or under 50%, plus the "net soft re-elect score" (deserves re-elect minus new person), plus the incumbent's "hard re-elect" score over under 30%.
A net negative score indicates some level of vulnerability, clearly showing Easley (with an IVI rating of negative twenty) falling between Barnes (who showed slight vulnerability) and Musgrove (who showed considerable vulnerability).
Meanwhile, John Edwards's numbers were so bad he's not even running for re-election. Posted by Orrin Judd at December 10, 2003 04:33 PM
Our family just moved to NC this year. We look forward to doing our bit vis-a-vis Mr. Easly (who is truly pathetic) against anybody; and supporting Mr. Burr (who is actually a pretty solid candidate) for the Senate, especially against Clinton acolyte Mr. Bowles.
Posted by: MG at December 10, 2003 07:01 PMEasley actually counts as another one of the Democratic Party's "lottery strategy" governors. There was a reasonable stretch where Democrats were winning Southern statehouses on that one issue, being pro-lottery.
Posted by: John Thacker at December 10, 2003 07:28 PMMeanwhile in Kentucky:
Ernie Fletcher (R) was inaugarated today!
Posted by: Bartman at December 10, 2003 07:39 PMThe governor's office in North Carolina is probably the weakest chief executive office of all 50. The legislature is just about evenly divided, with a couple of members who switched from R to D actually reported as possibly flipping back prior to next year's election (which gives you an idea of the type of representation there is). Easley is pretty much an empty suit, but so far the purported challengers are about the same. He got a lot of bad press because the NC fiscal 'crisis' hit first, in 2001 (and he acted like it was a tremendous surprise).
Posted by: jim hamlen at December 10, 2003 10:50 PM