December 02, 2003

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED:

Poll: President's approval on the rise after Thanksgiving (WILL LESTER, December 2, 2003, Associated Press)

President Bush's standing with the public has improved since his surprise Thanksgiving trip to Iraq amid signs of a stronger economy and following congressional passage of a prescription drug benefit under Medicare.

Bush's job approval was at 61 percent in the National Annenberg Election Survey conducted the four days after the holiday, up from 56 percent during the four days before Thanksgiving. Disapproval of the president dropped from 41 percent to 36 percent, according to the poll released Tuesday.

Bush visited the troops in Baghdad on Thanksgiving -- a move that even won praise from political opponents.

Public opinion about Bush personally also improved during the four-day, post-holiday span, with an increase in the number who view him favorably from 65 percent to 72 percent. Republicans shifted from 83 percent with a favorable view of Bush personally to 94 percent. Democrats moved from 46 percent to 55 percent.


Has any first term President ever had numbers that high at the end of his third year?

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 2, 2003 07:29 PM
Comments

But the Village Voice article above implies Republicans are ready to desert Bush in droves. Who's right? We'll find out in '04.

Posted by: AWW at December 2, 2003 10:11 PM

OJ: Probably not, but I don't have anything definitive to back up that gut feeling.

With the cash the GOP is throwing at grassroots registration efforts and the solid support from the base (wishful thinking on the part of CSM, NYT, Reason, Lew Rockwell, and others to the contrary), the President may just exceed expecations once again.

Posted by: kevin whited at December 2, 2003 11:28 PM

The two bits of real news: the flip to approval on the economy (with better to come) and the rock-solid support from the Repub base (absolutely no chance of a primary challenge).

The overall approval rating is almost meaningless this far from the election, but these two underlying numbers really are good news for Bush.

Posted by: Casey Abell at December 3, 2003 09:20 AM

Casey:

That the overall number is substantially higher than even Ronald Reagan's suggests something, no?

Posted by: oj at December 3, 2003 09:34 AM

The overall rating was goosed by the trip to Baghdad, which I'll admit was worth more than eigty-eight gazillions in paid advertising. The overall number will bounce here and there as the election approches.

Underlying numbers on base support and the economy are much more significant at this point.

Posted by: Casey Abell at December 3, 2003 10:10 AM

The numbers were historically high prior to the trip, while their bouncability suggests how high he can push them in the election.

Posted by: oj at December 3, 2003 10:48 AM

The economy number wasn't historically high or any other kind of high not so long ago. Despite the blogosphere's fixation on Iraq, the economy will of course decide the 2004 election. So the flip to a positive reading with higher positives to come is by far the most important news for Bush.

I'll admit that the base support numbers were always very strong. Now they're real close to unanimous.

Posted by: Casey Abell at December 3, 2003 11:08 AM
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