October 02, 2003
THE REAL NEWS LEAK SCANDAL:
Bye-Bye Bustamante? (Dotty Lynch, Douglas Kiker, Steve Chaggaris, Clothilde Ewing, Sean Sharifi and Natasha Kuzovich, 10/02/03, CBS News)
With the California recall less than a week away, the number of active candidates has shrunk from 135 to 132 with the withdrawal of Peter Ueberroth, Bill Simon and Arianna Huffington. Now there’s word that Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante may be next.The California Political Report says that Bustamante is "highly likely" to drop out of the race on Thursday. As "panic" over a possible Republican takeover spreads among state Democrats, Bustamante has come under a lot of pressure to withdraw his candidacy. Davis strategists have told CBS News that they they’ve always thought their best chance on defeating the recall would be to force voters to make a "clean choice" between Davis and Schwarzenegger.
Since joining the race, Bustamante has come under fire from many Democrats who felt he was giving California voters a mixed message, by virtually running for Governor and ignoring the first question on the ballot.
The key to any scandal is to figure out who benefits. By that standard it seems obvious that the story about Arnold assaulting women must have been planted by his campaign and timed to come out now in order to keep Cruz Bustamante in the race. Perhaps the only way Gray Davis can win the recall vote is for there to be no Democrat alternative to him. Cruz Bustamante, assuming he was mulling dropping out, seems just foolish enough to think that revelations of Arnold's Clintonism give him a shot at winning. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 2, 2003 02:18 PM
Hmmm. Methinks it's a bit too clever by half. What's the saying about the simplest answer probably being the right one?
LA Times and ilk are releasing the story one week out, just like the Dubya drunk driving thing, which did in fact hurt Bush. Standard play. I also think, being major media, they will be the very last to get the biggest story of the age, which is the collapse of credibility of the major media, coupled with a public fed up with their biases, lack of context, and endless stories about trees coupled with an appalling inability to understand forests.
Your theory is just a tad too cute.
Posted by: Andrew X at October 2, 2003 02:52 PMYeah - what he said.
Posted by: Oswald Czolgosz at October 2, 2003 05:12 PMI have to agree with Andrew X. BTW, the phrase you're looking for is Occam's Razor, which says that the most likely scenario is probably the correct one, and I was about to invoke it myself. This Parallels the release of the Bush DUI not just because they were both in the last week, but on the Last Thursday before the Tuesday election. It was designed to depress the GOP/Arnie Turnout. Cruz and Davis splitting the vote isn't an issue because Democrats who back Davis are allowed to vote on a replacement candidate too, allowing them to vote twice. The liberal California media is hoping that this depresses the Arnie people enough that the procedural gaffe allows either Davis to pass 50 or Cruz to get the Plurality on the second half. I don't think it'll work here any better than it did in '00 against Bush.
Posted by: MarkD at October 2, 2003 05:51 PMI use Occam's Toothbrush myself (not his comb though). Agree with your surmise though, the objective is -2% per day through Sunday. One day at a time.
Reposted from Waaay below (in comments):
Folks, it's only Thursday. Mulholland is topping off the second sludge bucket as we speak.
I predict Friday will be a disaffected business associate (with allegations of fraud).
Saturday, probably his asserted inordinate affinity for farm animals (or his factory in Guatemala with the guard towers and barbed wire),
Or maybe assertions that he frequentsly flies to Rio and Bangkok as a tour leader for Austrian sexual tourist groups.
Now is the time for McClintock to express outrage at the smear campaign by Davis/Mulholland and begin threatening to withdraw as a means of protest.
(Quinine not working today.) Damn this swamp
MarkD - Bush was heading for small but comfortable win (3-5%) before the DWI came out so I think it had an impact.
As I noted in another post we'll have to see if these last minute slimings hurt Arnold or the voters ignore them.
OJ-- Do they give you a bulk discount at the store where you buy your tinfoil hats?
:P
Charles:
Okay, you win: it was the Democrats who planted the story.
Posted by: oj at October 3, 2003 11:13 AMAWW, when I said "it didn't work" I meant in the sense that Bush ultimately won in spite of it, of course it narrowed the margin of victory, but didn't change the outcome, so the impact was substantial, but not enough, The results of the Arnold smear will be similar
Posted by: MarkD at October 3, 2003 07:10 PM