NOT COLD ENOUGH

Bringing China In From the Cold (NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF, June 3, 2003, NY Times)

The loopiest aspect of the Group of 8 conclave in èvian is the notion that global leaders are confronting the challenges of the 21st century in the absence of the nation that may well dominate the century.

That's right: China. [...]

No, Hu Jintao is no Gorbachev.

He's more like a Franco, a Pinochet, a Park. And, knock wood, the China he rules will follow Spain, Chile and South Korea in fostering the educated middle class that will lead it to democracy.

Though it's pleasing to see a NY Times columnist actually acknowledging that right-wing authoritarian regimes are effective stepping-stones to democracy, Mr. Kristof errs by comparing China to Spain, Chile, and South Korea. The latter three were oriented towards the West and therefore had to employ and proved susceptible to the rhetoric of human dignity and liberty. Moreover, the three leaders he cites were making conscious efforts to establish the conditions in which liberal democracy could be created/restored.

The Chinese on the other hand show little sign of wanting to be a part of the West and they continue to behave as if they are our enemies, PLA SEEKS A NEW LEAP FORWARD (Willy Lam, June 3, 2003, Jamestown Foundation):

Although he is generally deemed a moderate--if not liberal--cadre on political matters, President Hu Jintao issued a remarkably tough message on defense and armaments at a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo meeting in late May.

During this special Politburo "study session" on military matters, the president and party chief pointed out that China must "achieve a leap-forward style development in defense and army modernization." Hu hinted that much greater funding would be devoted to upgrading the arsenal of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) because, he said, economic progress "need to be safeguarded by a strong national defense."

Hu put the most emphasis on boosting the PLA's information technology (IT) and electronics capabilities. He called these capabilities "a major contributor to new transformations in the world's armies." The 60-year-old president, who is also one of three vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), vowed that "China will ceaselessly strengthen its national defense and military modernization."

What is behind the party and army leadership's redoubled zeal in beefing up PLA weaponry?

A key factor was the dazzling display of American firepower in the Iraqi theater. Even before the start of the war, Beijing had dispatched a considerable number of military and intelligence experts to the Middle East with the purpose of watching the Allied Forces in action from up close. Since early April, military academies have run marathon series of seminars on what the PLA could learn from American tactics and equipment. This was behind the Politburo's decision to--in the words of the official Xinhua news agency--"borrow from the experience of new military developments in the world."

It's unlikely China can ever become a genuine threat to us--its internal problem are too great--but until they undergo (or we impose) regime change, we should not treat them as a potential friend. Posted by Orrin Judd at June 3, 2003 11:09 PM