OPEN SOURCE IT ALL:

For much of the past three quarters of a century, the U.S. intelligence community has had one job that was more important than all others: assessing the capabilities of the Russian military. In all that time, the most significant deployment of that military is what we have seen during the past month, as part of the invasion of Ukraine.

While U.S. intelligence has gotten a lot right associated with this war, like virtually every other country in the world, we have been surprised that Russia has been so strikingly unsuccessful in achieving its initial goals since the current operation began on Feb. 24.

Many (including those in Moscow, judging from the current logistical issues Russian forces are facing) expected Russia to achieve air and sea superiority hastily which, in turn, would give Russia a big advantage in pursuing its objectives on the ground.

Clearly, that has not happened. Over a month into the invasion Russia still has not achieved air superiority, most of its major ground offensives are stalled, and Russian troops have been pushed back in key locations, including around the outskirts of Kyiv. There is now talk that Russia will be narrowing its military goals.

This raises the question: If the intelligence community was so successful at predicting the invasion, as well as key Russian tactics, how did it get this core question that has been so central to its mission so wrong?

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