October 23, 2020


Biden's Ukraine Problem Rebounds on Trump for Swing Voters  (JIMMY LEACH, 10/23/20, Newsweek)

That's the conclusion from this week's review of social media feeling around the imminent election carried out, as ever, by as evidenced by the voting intention data gather by Impact Social, who carry out a weekly tracker of social media sentiment analysis of 40,000 swing voters, ranging from disillusioned party supporters to the always undecided. Impact Social measures two sets of conversations--where Biden is the subject and where Trump is, and tracks the topics which surround them and the sentiment, positive or negative, around it.

It's relatively rare that Biden is the 'lead' topic in the social media conversations. Usually, the chatter, around both men, is what Trump has done now (and by extension what Biden has not done). Biden's path to victory has, so far, been paved by inaction--if he said and did little more than try to look like a Grown Up, that has been enough. This week, though, he's been the topic of much of the chatter, with Hunter the biggest single object of those conversations, with many hoping to echo Trump's famous "drain the swamp" motto of four years ago--with Biden being part of that Beltway Bog. [...]

The trouble for Trump is that there was considerably more activity amongst those who had perhaps been sleepwalking to a presumed Biden victory but who have been galvanized by the story into sneering at its validity and their presumption of it being a last, and fake, throw of the dice in a losing cause. For them, the irony of Trump accusing the Biden family of being on the take has been a little rich and created more than enough reason to list the President's own alleged misdemeanors. Worryingly for Trump, the single biggest topic amongst pro-Biden conversations was 'vote Biden', perhaps dispelling any lingering Republican hopes of the 'shy Biden' vote being difficult to get out.

That's resulted in the sentiment around Trump falling even further into the negative, to -18 percent as the campaign enters its final fortnight and emerges from the final, rather inconclusive, TV debate. For the President, the first shot at an October surprise has landed in his own foot.

Posted by at October 23, 2020 1:02 PM