October 20, 2020


Why Trump Is Losing White Suburban Women (Meredith Conroy, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Erin Cassese, 10/20/20, 538)

It wasn't that long ago, though, that Trump had an edge among suburban voters. In 2016, Trump won them, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to an analysis of validated voters by the Pew Research Center. But by 2018, 52 percent of suburban voters supported Democratic candidates for Congress, compared with 45 percent who supported Republican candidates. And according to our analysis of polling data from Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape, Trump is losing suburban voters to Biden, by 54 percent to 44 percent.

What is driving this move away from Trump and Republicans in the suburbs? According to our analysis of Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape data, beyond the diversification of the suburbs, it's mostly because of white suburban women: 54 percent of them support Biden, while just 45 percent support Trump (very few are undecided).2 Meanwhile, white suburban men haven't stopped backing Trump -- he's winning them 57 percent to 41 percent. (The reason we're zooming in on white suburban voters is that nonwhite voters in the suburbs are much more likely to say they'll back Biden -- 83 percent of Black, 69 percent of Asian/Pacific Islander, and 57 percent of Hispanic likely voters said they supported Biden, according to our analysis.)

Posted by at October 20, 2020 12:00 AM