January 9, 2020


Occam's Election: The simplest answer is also the most likely. Why is everyone discounting it? (JONATHAN V. LAST  JANUARY 9, 2020, The Bulwark)

[T]he most likely scenario for 2020 is that the vice president for the last sitting Democratic president--who has led the primary field by a wide margin from the moment he declared--will win his party's nomination.

And then what?

Again, let's stipulate that on any given Tuesday, yadda yadda yadda. But we have some pretty clear polling data on what to expect in a Trump versus Biden election.

Biden has led Trump in all but three of the head-to-head polls taken this cycle. That's 61 polls showing Biden leading, three polls showing Trump leading.

This is not an artifact of Trump just having a bad run. Right now Trump's job approval is at 45 percent, which is just about the highest it has ever been. Biden is still leading him by an average of 5 points.

And that's just the national number.

When you go to state-level polling, Biden's position is also strong: His starting point is roughly 268 votes in the Electoral College where Arizona, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina are the toss-ups. Biden has had small, but consistent, leads in North Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin. And remember: This is before Democrats have coalesced around their nominee and while Trump is on a relative upswing.

And Donald's at 42%.
Posted by at January 9, 2020 8:21 AM