September 5, 2019


Assad Hasn't Won Anything (Charles Lister, Jul. 11th, 2019, Foreign Policy)

When Syria is discussed these days, it is increasingly common to hear the phrase "Assad won," or "the war is coming to an end." Understandably so. Nearly two-thirds of Syria now lies under regime control. Since Russia's military intervention in Syria in September 2015, the opposition has not won a single major victory and lost the vast majority of its territorial holdings. In eastern Syria, meanwhile, the Islamic State's territorial caliphate was dealt its final defeat in the village of Baghouz in late March. To a large degree, the subject of Syria today has become one defined predominantly by debates over issues such as refugee return, reconstruction, whether to provide sanctions relief, and the question of whether to reengage with the regime.

For the regime's longtime defenders, this has been a moment to celebrate, to breathe a sigh of relief, and to intensify calls for the world to accept this new reality, end sanctions, and help Syria rebuild and restore sovereignty in all corners of the country. These calls are not new, but they are quietly garnering some traction among some influential observers and policymakers. For example, the Carter Center--founded by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter--co-hosted a meeting in April in London that discussed issues like "restoring territorial sovereignty" and "how to secure the removal of armed forces operating in Syria without the Syrian government's consent." That event's co-host was the British Syrian Society, a pro-regime group founded by Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's father-in-law, Fawaz Akhras, a man who in 2012 was advising Assad on how to counter evidence of civilians being tortured. The society's current executive director also happens to be the brother of Syria's alleged chemical weapons chief.

There's just one problem: The Assad regime has not "won" anything. It has merely survived at the cost of Syrians' blood and fear; stability remains far out of reach. The last holdouts of opposition in the country's northwest seem intractable. Elsewhere in the country, there are plentiful signs of future instability. Syria is no longer in open civil war, but the country's political crisis is intensifying. The root causes that gave way to the uprising in 2011 remain in place--most are now even worse. Even in territories always held by the regime and populated by its most ardent defenders, life today presents more challenges than it did during the conflict's most intense days.

Meanwhile, we used him and Vlad to crush ISIS at no cost in American lives.  
Posted by at September 5, 2019 7:13 AM