January 19, 2018


OMR: Is seventy plenty? (IEA, 14 December 2017)

A judgement as to whether the recent price strength is sustainable must take into account the rapid growth in global oil supply seen recently and which will continue through 2018. Short-cycle production from the US is reacting to rising prices and in this Report we have raised our forecast for crude oil growth there in 2018 from 870 kb/d to 1.1 mb/d. It is possible that very soon US crude production could overtake that of Saudi Arabia and also rival Russia's. After adding in barrels from Brazil, Canada and other growth countries, and allowing for falls in Mexico, China and elsewhere, total non-OPEC production will increase by 1.7 mb/d. This represents, after the downturn in 2016 and the steady recovery in 2017, a return to the heady days of 2013-2015 when US-led growth averaged 1.9 mb/d.

Posted by at January 19, 2018 8:32 AM