November 21, 2015


Do Dems Have Much More to Lose in This Election Than the GOP? (MATTHEW DOWD,  Nov 21, 2015, ABC News)

[l]et's take a moment to understand what party faces the biggest problems ahead in the aftermath of a loss in the Presidential race next November.

Reasonable worst case scenario for the GOP: They lose the Presidential race, they lose control of the United States Senate by a few votes, and they lose a few seats in House of Representatives but retain control and they retain a majority of Governors and state legislative bodies.

Reasonable best case scenario for GOP: they win Presidential race, expand control of the Senate, retain control of the House and expand majority of Governors and state legislative bodies.

Reasonable worst case scenario for the Dems: they lose Presidential race, lose seats in the Senate, don't gain control of House and lose more Governor's and state legislative races.

Reasonable best case scenario for the Dems: win Presidential race, gain control of Senate by slim margin, pick up a few seats in House but don't control, win a few Governor's races and legislative seats.

So when you look at the various scenarios for the 2016 general election you reach the following conclusion: the upside for the GOP is much better than any upside for Dems, and the downside for the Dems is much much worse than any downside for the GOP.

And for Dems any positive election result is totally contingent on winning the Presidential race, while if the GOP loses the Presidential race they still control the House and have majority of Governors and state legislative bodies. Today the GOP controls more than 30 governors offices and state legislatures.

If the Dems suffer their reasonable worse case scenario, the aftermath of the November 2016 elections will make what happened to the GOP in 2012 look like a tea party. They will control no power at the federal level, and be in minority throughout the 50 states as a whole. If the GOP needed to go through soul searching after 2012, then the Dems will go through the dark night of the soul as St. John of the Cross described many moons ago. The handwringing and interparty battles will be a site to behold. Fasten your seatbelts if that worse case scenario happens to the Dems.

Throughout the Anglosphere/Scandinavia the political contest is exclusively over which party adheres most closely to the Third Way. This is why Hillary is running to the right, as an heiir of her husband, to succeed another Democrat who has governed as a Republican.  

Were she to lose, Democrats could well indulge in the sort of retreat to the Second Way that is destroying Labour in Britain.

Democrats have much more to lose.

Posted by at November 21, 2015 8:10 AM