WINNING:

[P]utting all these variables together into a regression equation yields a prediction that Republicans will pick up roughly 13 state legislatures this year. Now, to be sure, that's a pretty antiseptic forecast, ignoring some important state-by-state details. And it doesn't really tell us just which chambers are most likely to flip, although any list would have to include chambers like the senates of Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and Oregon, where Democrats only hold the majority by one or two seats.

But what we know about state legislative elections suggests that they turn strongly on the national political environment, and the political fates of thousands of state legislators next month turns on voters' perceptions of Barack Obama and the national economy. If history is any judge, Republicans will emerge from the election with a greater ability to mold state-level policy and affect the lives and livelihoods of state residents, even if those residents aren't thinking about this when they cast their votes.

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