August 10, 2013
IT'S ALWAYS A TOUGH TIME TO BE A MALTHUSIAN:
China's Big Commodity Chill : With the end of the supercycle, copper prices have dropped 30% from their 2011 peak, and iron ore is down 32%. (DANIEL YERGIN, 8/09/13, WSJ)
Though it was summertime, a tinge of ice was in the June air at this year's St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. "There is no magic wand we can wave," said Russian President Vladimir Putin, acknowledging the abrupt drop in Russia's growth rate. "Prices for our main exports rose fast" for many years, he told the forum, but now "the situation has changed. There are no magic solutions."What is giving Russia and many other countries the shivers is the China Chill that is the result of the slowing Chinese economy. It means a recalibration for the world's exporters, who have come to count on vigorous Chinese demand. It will be a particular challenge for commodity exporters. Over the past decade, they have been the great beneficiaries of the commodity "supercycle"--the combination of accelerating demand and rising commodity prices that have delivered GDP growth. With China's slowing, the supercycle is over, meaning tough choices ahead.
Posted by Orrin Judd at August 10, 2013 5:03 AM
Tweet