March 21, 2008


The Clinton myth (Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, March 21, 2008, Politico)

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

That the Democrats are marching towards the inevitable nomination of the unelectable Senator Obama while she's poised to thrash him in PA just makes this all the more enjoyable.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 21, 2008 4:32 PM

Those who think this is the end of Hillary's career are insane. Come November 5, the long knives are going to come out for everyone in the party who didn't back them.

Remember the scene in Braveheart where the two lords turned and rode away in the heart of the battle and left Wallace's army to its fate? That's what big labor and the non-black party machines are going to do this fall, although much more subtly of course. Obama can't win, and then the Clintons will have their reckoning. What's in it for Rendell, Daly, Villaraigosa, et al., to go all out in a hopeless causes?

So next time Hillary will be able to say "See! You should have nominated me!" and still have the backing of her white working-class voters (especially female). She'll spin the coming McCain blowout as due to racism, and hence get the black vote. The PhD crowd will come slinking along whining all the while. She'll have almost certainly lost the opportunity to reshape the Supreme Court, since there's no way Ginsberg and Stevens can keep hanging on for four more years (is there?), but she'll get her nomination.

Unfortunately for her, she'll still be unelectable (even if she divorces Bill, as rumors often suggest she'll do once he's no longer an asset to her).

Posted by: b at March 21, 2008 5:00 PM

Democrats are one and done. She'd be the GOP frontrunner.

Posted by: oj at March 21, 2008 6:33 PM

Let's not forget that the Dems are likely to win, even if they nominated the so-called Reverend Wright himself. Not because of Iraq which is fading as an issue, but because the media will have convinced most Americans that the economy is worse than it was at the end of Hoover's presidency.

So unless a real miracle happens, the next POTUS will probably be a black supremacist with a Messiah complex.

Posted by: Peter at March 22, 2008 6:13 AM

The media is trivial. They hated Nixon, Reagan, GHWB, and W yet all won. They like Maverick.

Posted by: oj at March 22, 2008 7:34 AM
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