March 22, 2008


McCain Gains from Clinton-Obama Feud: Campaign Sniping Has More Democrats Saying They'll Vote McCain If Their Candidate Loses (JOHN COCHRAN, March 22, 2008, ABC News)

Polls now show words from both camps are causing serious damage. An increasing number of Clinton supporters say they would not vote for Obama in November and vice versa.

According to a new Franklin & Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania voters, only 53 percent of Clinton backers say they'll vote for Obama should he become the nominee. Nineteen percent say they'll vote for McCain and 13 percent say they won't vote, the poll found.

The poll said that 60 percent of Obama backers said they would go for Clinton should she win the nomination, with 20 percent opting for McCain, and 3 percent saying they wouldn't vote at all.

That's what ABC News found in talking to voters on the street.

"I think I'd have to vote for McCain," Laura Courson, New York woman who supports Clinton told ABC News, when asked what she would do if her candidate were not the Democrats' nominee.

"I'd have a hard time voting for Hillary Clinton in this election ... I might go for a third party candidate," said Kevin Mills, a Los Angeles man who supports Obama.

The Right needs him more then he needs them.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 22, 2008 7:16 PM

Here's a scenario I have not seen discussed much, but will become a hot topic in April and May:

Trading wins in the remaining races, the delegate lead remains as it is today, about 100+ in favor of Obama. But Hillary keeps winning about 60-70% of the white vote (or, conversely, Obama struggles to reach 25-30% of the white vote.)

Oh, the agony of the superdelegates! Not enough to give the nomination to Hillary, but enough problems with Obama that they are doomed inthe general election.

Posted by: sam at March 22, 2008 7:53 PM

Obama's speech on Thursday was a marker, first to the superdelegates, and second to the media, that racial reconciliation is dependent upon his nomination (and election).

Will they be persuaded? Will they be intimidated? Will they be herded? Will they be silenced?

Given that he is fighting Hillary, probably not. He is one or two more outrageous video clips away from real defeat, at least in the remaining primaries. Two or three weeks ago, he would have won NC by 10 points. Now, he'll be lucky to break even.

He's probably going to have to squeeze Hillary to release her tax returns. He doesn't have anything to lose, and after Bill's continued backdoor racist comments, Obama could do it with a sharp smile. His greatest weapon against them is his graceful way of raising questions that Hillary doesn't want to answer. It probably won't help him much in PA, but the revelation of $30 million plus from foreign governments and foreign financial agents will put Hillary on the defensive, possibly for good. And the sight of Bill storming off a stage, refusing to answer any questions about his earnings, won't help at all. Obama could even take such a tantrum and tell Democrats everywhere that it is time to move past the Clintons for good. I'd love to see Carville respond to that one.

Denver, here we come!

Posted by: jim hamlen at March 22, 2008 10:42 PM