November 27, 2007
HERE COMES THE ICE AGE HYSTERIA:
Hurricane predictions miss the mark (MARTIN MERZER, 11/26/07, Miami Herald)
Just before the season started on June 1, the nationally prominent Gray-Klotzbach team at Colorado State University predicted that 17 named storms would grow into nine hurricanes, five of which would be particularly intense, with winds above 110 mph.Posted by Orrin Judd at November 27, 2007 11:05 AMA different team at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five intense hurricanes.
The actual results for the 2007 season: 14 named storms, five hurricanes, two intense hurricanes.
That turned a season predicted to be extremely active into one that was about average in number of storms and well below average in total intensity.
Even mid-season corrections issued by both teams in August -- somewhat akin to changing your prediction about a baseball game during the fifth inning -- proved wrong.
Their pre-season predictions in 2005 and 2006 were even worse.
And we should turn our lives upside down base on some "scientists" and quacks' calamitous predictions on global warming!
Posted by: ic at November 27, 2007 3:31 PMEven the Farmer's Almanac used to be right 85% of the time.
On the other hand, we can ask Big Al for his longer term projections.
Posted by: genecis at November 27, 2007 3:34 PMCould the drought in the southeast be caused by the lack of hurricanes in recent years? I imagine a lot of their yearly rainfall comes from hurricanes.
Posted by: Bryan at November 27, 2007 7:34 PMSo the question now is do we really know so little about how weather sciences work that it's impossible to accurately predict wether patterns or is this simply a case of scientists letting their left wing values corrupt their execution of the scientific method (as liberal economists and psychiatrists have been doing for decades)?
Posted by: MarkD at November 27, 2007 7:44 PM"The end is near"
Posted by: ept at November 28, 2007 12:35 AM