July 16, 2007
WHEN EVEN THE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES CAN FIGURE IT OUT...:
U.S. fears Palestinian leader politically weak (Robin Wright, 7/16/07, The Washington Post)
A flurry of intelligence assessments have warned that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas may not be politically strong enough to salvage the Mideast peace process, according to U.S. officials.The assessments also caution that his opponents in Hamas, the Islamic movement that is being shunned by Abbas, Israel and the U.S., will not be easily marginalized.
The White House is betting that Abbas, replenished by the return of aid from the West and tax revenue withheld by Israel, can create a stable enclave in the West Bank and resume peace negotiations with Israel.
...you know you've made a bad bet. Posted by Orrin Judd at July 16, 2007 9:01 AM
According to stories I saw over the weekend, polling data in Gaza indicates that support for Hamas is dropping like a rock. That doesn't mean love for Fatah, but it might mean that at least some portion of the Palestinian population wants a difference.
Supposedly over 40% of those who voted Hamas last time wouldn't do so today. If true, that is huge.
But the question is whether there will ever be another election in Gaza.
Posted by: jim hamlen at July 16, 2007 2:08 PMDoubts have also been expressed recently at State, about Arafat's health....
Posted by: Barry Meislin at July 16, 2007 2:43 PMBarry, secret intel confirms Arafat is still stable.
Posted by: erp at July 16, 2007 4:59 PMHamas will hold elections. Fatah can't.
Posted by: oj at July 16, 2007 5:14 PMIf Fatah is dependent on the West, it will have to hold elections.
If Hamas is dependent on Damascus and Tehran, it won't dare hold elections.
Posted by: ratbert at July 16, 2007 10:30 PMWe won't let Fatah hold elections because it can't win them, or, as last time, we'll renounce the results.
Iran is democratic. It has to be because of its people.
Posted by: oj at July 16, 2007 11:14 PM