June 19, 2007

NOT QUITE FULL...YET...:

Account Balance: Hamas's victory actually presents an opportunity for Israel. (Gadi Taub, 6/19/07, TNR Online)

For the second time in less than two years, Hamas may be experiencing too much success for its own good. Hamas did well as an opposition group, maintaining the purity of its extreme positions while steering clear of political accountability. Hamas leaders were well aware of this and avoided taking part in government for a long time.

Their decision, therefore, to run for the Palestinian Authority elections last year and evolve into an institutionalized opposition party was not taken lightly. Then came the sweeping success which took it by surprise. Not only did Hamas become an official party, it found itself heading the government. This put Hamas in a paradoxical situation. On the one hand it remained faithful to its ideology and continued its refusal to abide by the terms to which Israel and the Quartet insisted: acknowledging Israel's right to exist, accepting the agreements the PLO signed with Israel, and renouncing terrorism. But, on the other hand, its sweeping electoral victory made it accountable in the eyes of its own people for whatever consequence this uncompromising stance would bring.

The solution to this conundrum was to form a coalition government with Fatah, in which Fatah stood for compromise, Hamas for extremism. Fatah was supposed to relieve international and Israeli pressure, and Hamas to somehow continue the Holy War. But what worked under Yassir Arafat, when Hamas was given much leeway as an underground organization, became more difficult to manage with Hamas heading a government. The result was a series of short-term, fragile ceasefires, which periodically broke down, along with a steady deterioration in the well-being of Gaza's citizens. The coalition government actually put Hamas and Fatah on a collision course. It was an unworkable partnership: Hamas didn't let Fatah deliver on its promises to Israel, and Fatah couldn't restrain Hamas's attacks. Policy--if that is the word for it--was not so much a compromise between the two as it was a random median of two mutually exclusive strategies. It was only a matter of time until clashes between the two factions turned into civil war.

That civil war has now given Hamas its second too-spectacular success. It did not simply subdue Fatah in Gaza, it annihilated it. But, as a result, Hamas is now being pushed into the position of full accountability.


The basic insight is correct: the responsibility of governing is fatal to Hamas as a terror organization and will render it a normal political party. But it doesn't have full responsibility until there's a unified nation of Palestine.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 19, 2007 5:21 PM
Comments

"Hamas's victory actually presents an opportunity for Israel."

This is very true. Now every policeman directing traffic is a Hamas member, and therefore a legitimate target. And every government office is a Hamas planning center, and therefore a legitimate target. And so on and so forth...

Posted by: b at June 19, 2007 5:48 PM

"The responsibility of governing is fatal to the National Socialist German Workers' Party as a terror organization, and will render it a normal political party. But it doesn't have full responsibility until there's a unified Grossdeutscheland."

Yep, that's it. Keep giving them whatever they want: the Rheinland, Austria, Czechoslovakia, just keep answering their just demands. We just know that giving in to them is going to make them mellow out.

Face it: by setting up our client state--Israel--in the heart of the jailhouse, we have drawn the sword and thrown away the scabbard. The other side in the clash of civilizations will solve itself or it shall be solved.

Posted by: Lou Gots at June 19, 2007 10:17 PM

Lou is correct. Gaining power and the responsibility of governing didn't create "normal political parties" out of the Bolsheviks, the Japanese militarists, the Khymer Rouge, the Iranian Islamists, etc., etc. And Palestinian nationalism, Fatah-style or Hamas-style, is so bound up with hatred of Israel and Jews that I don't see power having a moderating effect.

So b is correct as well, though I suppose Hamas could come up with Fatah-like excuses for attacks by "rogue elements" not under their control.

Posted by: PapayaSF at June 19, 2007 11:33 PM

The Iranian model is apt. Parties have been voted out in succession for failing to improve the quality of daily life, with Ahmedinejad to follow shortly.

These are more democratic times though.

Even the Nazi model would be preferable from a Palestinian perspective. Recall that many in the West, including Churchill, looked favorably on the order and improvements that the Nazis and Mussolini brought to their countries in their early years.

Nazi Germany would have been rather easy to contain. Palestine even easier. In fact, Palestine acting like Nazi Germany would permit the sraelis to depopulate the place with impunity, so it'd be the best option for those on the Right.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2007 5:53 AM

Isnt this exactly what they said about Nazis-a spell in govt will moderate them.

Posted by: Bisaal at June 20, 2007 6:38 AM

Bisaal - Yes, the Nazis would have moderated if only they had taken over England too! And Iran will be moderate once it has Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Hamastan, and the West Bank!

Posted by: pj at June 20, 2007 7:43 AM

Had Hindenburg just called elections rather than circumventing democracy Hitler wouldn't have been Chancellor.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2007 7:49 AM

Even the rather limited constraints on the Nazis kept them from making war for six years and when they did so they acted as a typical national regime. Palestine would benefit from such a period of normalcy.

Of course, Nazi political failures finished them as a political party.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2007 7:52 AM

The ideological presumptions of both Hamas and the German National Socialists should be discussed if this Hegalian -compare and contrast- about what should occur and the 'what might have beens' is to have any meaning. Ideology is everything. History, to a large extent, is the story of ideology. Simply because things turn out the way they did doesn't imply that it was determined to be so. It would be wise to ask oneself,"What does Hamas believe?"

Posted by: fred at June 20, 2007 6:07 PM

It doesn't matter what Hamas believes. It matters what the Palestinians want. And what Israel will tolerate. After all, a nuclear armed Israel would have settled Hitler's hash in a hurry.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2007 7:19 PM

It matters very much what Hamas believes. What exactly do the Palestinians want? If Israel were nuclear capable in time to 'settle Hitler's hash', don't you think Hitler would have been as well? I don't see Iran's 'hash' being settled. Does history not fully play itself out until Iran has a nuclear capabilty?

Posted by: fred at June 20, 2007 7:57 PM

Palestinians want a state of their own and affluence, just like everyone else. They'll have both--we're just quarreling about the pace.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2007 8:43 PM

Palestinians want a state of their own and affluence, just like everyone else

Their problem (or one of them) is that they think the only way to get those things is to destroy Israel and kill Jews. They'd be a long way to their goals if they stopped living on welfare, acting like victims and supporting various terrorist gangs.

Posted by: PapayaSF at June 20, 2007 11:05 PM

Yes, but man isn't a rational creature.

Posted by: oj at June 20, 2007 11:13 PM

The Nazis were political failures - they did better in the penultimate election than in the last.

Of course, what is really to be remembered is that once they could, they altered the constitution so that future elections could be blocked, and opposition parties could be eliminated. By early 1934, they were on their way.

When is the next election in Gaza scheduled?

Will the Euros and the State Dept. weenies risk having another one in the West Bank?

Bonus question - will Nancy Pelosi visit Mashaal on her next jaunt to Damascus?

Posted by: ratbert at June 21, 2007 12:38 AM

Hamas can hold fair elections because it will win. Fatah can't.

Posted by: oj at June 21, 2007 7:10 AM

If man isn't a rational creature, how is it that you expect a bunch of violent Jew-haters to act rationally?

Posted by: PapayaSF at June 21, 2007 9:48 PM

I don't.

Posted by: oj at June 21, 2007 10:06 PM

Wait, haven't you been advocating the election of Islamist parties and claiming that power and responsibility will moderate them? Doesn't that assume that they will act rationally?

Posted by: PapayaSF at June 22, 2007 12:54 AM

God forbid. Rational parties are generally mass murderous.

Consider what the Palestinians would do were they rational: insist on the one state solution. Demographically they'd bury the Jews in a generation and take Israel via the womb.

Posted by: oj at June 22, 2007 7:52 AM
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