December 20, 2006

LESS IS MORE:

A key player in Lebanon alters his part: Gen. Michel Aoun, a Christian, has hitched his star to Hezbollah (Megan K. Stack, December 20, 2006, LA Times)

In these days of fear and distrust in Lebanon, there may be no man who inspires more venom than Gen. Michel Aoun.

Since returning from 15 years of exile to the joyful cheers of his followers last year, the Christian leader known simply as "the General" has frayed this fragile country's intricate network of allegiances. First he formed a surprising political alliance with Hezbollah. Then he sent his followers into the streets for massive antigovernment demonstrations. [...]

It's no secret that Aoun would like to emerge from Lebanon's political paralysis as president, a post reserved for a Christian under Lebanon's system of carving up the government according to religion. Many Lebanese believe that he made a Faustian bargain with Hezbollah in hopes of assuring his ascendance.

His rivals say he is so blinded by ambition that he's willing to destabilize the country — and turn Christians against one another — to get the power he wants. But Aoun insists that he is working to secure a better government for Lebanon, and that the presidency is an afterthought.

Whatever his motives, he has boosted Hezbollah's fortunes at a delicate time: As it pushes to topple the government, Hezbollah has minimized its image as an armed Islamist party of Shiite Muslims. Hezbollah now speaks of itself as a mainstream movement with a populist, cross-sectarian appeal.

Critics fear Aoun is being used by Hezbollah, and warn that his newfound allies will toss him aside when they no longer need him. They call him a traitor to Christians and a tool of Syria and Iran, Hezbollah's main backers.

"He's a destructive figure in recent Lebanese history," said Michael Young, opinion editor for Lebanon's Daily Star newspaper. "Lebanon has never been so divided, and the Christian community, since his return, has never been so divided. Like many a demagogue, he lives off division."

This slight, 71-year-old leader with an office full of history books and an evident interest in Charles de Gaulle has gambled his legacy on Hezbollah. He argues that time will prove the wisdom of his choices.

"Maybe it looks to somebody like a big gamble, but to me it's clear," he said. "The result will save this country…. The other choices we have right now threaten our own existence. What I am doing right now will preserve the existence of Christians in the Middle East."


The simple reality is the same as that for the Sunni of Baghdadistan, Christians will wield influence in a divided Lebanon that they wouldn't in a united one run by the Shi'a majority.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 20, 2006 12:00 AM
Comments

Acccording to the US State Department:

"Because the matter of parity among confessional groups remains a sensitive political issue, a national census has not been conducted since 1932, before the founding of the modern state. However, the country's leading daily newspaper, an-Nahar, published on February 10, 2005, a demographic statistical study which put the relative percentages of approximately 3 million members of the voting public as 26.5 percent Sunni Muslim, 26.2 percent Shi'a Muslim, 40.8 percent Christian (Maronites representing 21.1 percent) and 5.6 percent Druze."

Even if children are factored in, there is no way that Shites are a majority. A plurality maybe, but no way a majority.

Posted by: Bob at December 20, 2006 12:22 PM

That's what Saddam kept saying too.

Posted by: oj at December 20, 2006 1:10 PM
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