July 31, 2006


RUDY, THE FRONT-RUNNER Cruising ahead of McCain (Ryan Sager, 25 July 2006, NY Post)

It's early in the game yet, but it's becoming undeniable: Rudy Giuliani will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008 - as the clear front-runner...
But McCain would trounce Rudy in those states if people knew about his positions on abortion and gay rights (and his marital history), right? Wrong again. Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson told me of some "push polling" in Florida and Georgia - where his firm told voters about Rudy's positions and marital problems and about McCain's support for campaign-finance reform and working with Democrats against President Bush.
The effect on Rudy's numbers, Johnson said, "underwhelmed" his expectations significantly, merely putting the two candidates into a statistical dead heat - not launching the more conventionally conservative (at least on issues like abortion) McCain into the lead. "Some people who identify themselves as strong conservatives, even when we did do the push-poll questions in Georgia and Florida, were still more willing to go with Giuliani," Johnson said. "Strong, Christian conservatives."...
What about McCain's "crossover appeal"? Isn't he a better shot against Hillary? Nope. Pretty much every poll taken on the matter shows Rudy beating Sen. Clinton by a much bigger margin than McCain would. In May, a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showed Rudy with a nationwide nine-point lead over her; McCain, only a statistically insignificant 4 points. (And, in "blue" New York, where both Rudy and Hillary are known best, McCain loses to Hillary, as expected, while Rudy beats her in one of the most liberal states in the country - a state with 31 electoral votes.)...
"A lot of people don't particularly like McCain," Dr. Eddie Floyd, finance co-chairman of Bush's 2000 and '04 campaigns in South Carolina, told me the other day. He and other South Carolina GOP activists met with Giuliani recently. "We were very, very impressed with the mayor," he said. "When he explained his positions, they were not as far off as you would think."
"A lot of people"? Try nobody.

Posted by Pepys at July 31, 2006 6:22 PM

Nobody don't particularly likes McCain, or Nobody particularly likes McCain?

Posted by: David Cohen at July 31, 2006 6:26 PM

Don't nobody particulary like McCain?

Posted by: ghostcat at July 31, 2006 7:03 PM

Does OJ?

Posted by: Sandy P at July 31, 2006 7:10 PM

Ain't nobody in here but us what don't particularly like McCain chickens.

Posted by: joe shropshire at July 31, 2006 7:12 PM

Just got back from visiting "Right Wing News". John Hawkins polled a bunch of center-right blogs on their least favorite conservatives. Totally open-ended.

If I read the results correctly, Rudy did not show up. Not once. McCain was #2 ... only Paddy-the-Mick Buchanan fared "better".

Posted by: ghostcat at July 31, 2006 8:04 PM

Who you callin' a nobody?

Posted by: obc at July 31, 2006 8:15 PM


Don't most consertives (correctly) think Buchanan isn't a conservative anymore?

Posted by: Kirk Parker at July 31, 2006 10:41 PM

I'd first like to see some evidence that Guiliani won't "grow in office", or at least not to the extent that I would expect out of Sen. Keating-McCain. And has Rudy ever been considered "conservative"?

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at July 31, 2006 10:49 PM

Not as conservative on most key issues as McCain, but Rudy was battered around enough by the New York City media between 1989 (when he lost the mayoral election to Dinkins) and Sept. 11, 2001 so that he should have a fairly well attuned BS detector as far as knowing whose got his back and who is just waiting for the right time to strike (and the media wouldn't go after Giuliani directly; other than pointing out his connection to the failed Bernie Kerick nomination, they would play up his social issue positions in a neutral or even favorable fashion, in hopes that the Republicans will rip themselves apart in some sort of Howard Dean-like frenzy once they get wind of his positions).

Posted by: John at August 1, 2006 12:02 AM

Tickets are going fast for the OJ-Pepys steel-cage death match during the GOP primaries.

Posted by: Casey Abell at August 1, 2006 7:56 AM

People like leaders. Giuliani is a leader. McCain is a Senator.

Posted by: Rick T. at August 1, 2006 8:09 AM

Rick, I think you've penned the winning bumper sticker.

Posted by: erp at August 1, 2006 9:46 AM

bravo Rick

Posted by: Palmcroft at August 1, 2006 10:31 AM

McCain's problem is he would look awful in a silky evening gown, unlike Giuliani when he did his "Rudia" turn.

"Walk on the Wild Side. Rudie '08.

Posted by: Ed Bush at August 1, 2006 10:33 AM

McCain in a dress would look a little like an older version of Christopher Hewitt in "The Producers".

Posted by: John at August 1, 2006 12:16 PM

"A lot of people"? Try nobody.

It's funny when people with a preference for/against a candidate translate that preference into what everybody/nobody believes.

Not so funny on this blog, though, where more sober commentary usually prevails.

Posted by: kevin whited at August 2, 2006 10:03 AM

Not so funny on this blog, though, where more sober commentary usually prevails.

Now that is funny.

Posted by: Noam Chomsky at August 2, 2006 11:54 AM

You new to the net Noam?

Posted by: erp at August 2, 2006 5:39 PM