July 19, 2006


Four in 10 Republicans Would Not Find McCain an "Acceptable" Nominee (Jeffrey Jones, 19 July 2006, The Gallup News Service)

A recent Gallup Panel poll asked Republicans and Democrats whether they would find each of several possible contenders for their party's 2008 presidential nomination to be "acceptable" nominees. Unlike other nomination ballot questions that measure respondents' first choice from among a list of possible candidates, this question paints a broader picture of the level of potential support and opposition for each candidate...
Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner among Democrats when voters are asked to choose which one candidate they would prefer for the Democratic nomination for president, but the current poll finds Democrats are about equally likely to rate Clinton, John Edwards, and Al Gore as acceptable nominees. Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain typically vie for the lead in Republican preference polls, but a greater percentage of Republicans say they would find Giuliani acceptable than say this about McCain (73% to 55%). Four in 10 Republicans say they would not find McCain to be an acceptable GOP presidential nominee. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also widely considered by Republicans to be an acceptable nominee...

The thing is, as good as this looks for Rudy in the primaries, he does even better among independents and Democrats.

Posted by Pepys at July 19, 2006 2:51 PM

Always maintained that oj was wrong about the inevitability of McPain.

Posted by: obc at July 19, 2006 4:01 PM

One should wait until Rudy has to answer his first questions from primary-voting Republicans on his support for gay marriage and whether he would appoint pro-choice judges before getting over-excited about his prospects.

Posted by: Matt Cohen at July 19, 2006 4:07 PM

Well, McCain's not running, but nonetheless:

You don't have to fall in love. You have to fall in line.

Posted by: David Cohen at July 19, 2006 4:10 PM

I wasn't saying Rudy will be the nominee - just that it won't be McPain.

Posted by: obc at July 19, 2006 4:15 PM

The brass doesn't like him, the party faithfull don't like him and Rudy has an even better chance of taking the whole thing.

It's perfect, everyone can stick it to McCain and still field an almost unbeatable candidate.

As I've said before, McCain can't give the base the judges they want and Rudy is inches away from ideological acceptability. All he has to do is promise to stay out of the way and let the States handle those issues. It's what the independents want to hear anyway.

Posted by: Pepys at July 19, 2006 4:31 PM

McCain is too old anyway, and that may be self-evident to the public before the primaries even start.

Agree with Pepys in the likely approach Giuliani will use in defusing issues like gun control, abortion and gay marriage.

"During his aborted run for the U.S. Senate in 2000, he did state: "The institution of marriage should remain defined as a man and a woman" link

Posted by: h-man at July 19, 2006 6:32 PM

It's worth noting that Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee has a 41% "unacceptable" rating. I would be pretty surprised if 40% of primary voters know who Huckabee is. Only three of the twelve have a lower "unacceptability" rating than McCain and Rudy is the only one with equal name recognition (Allen's numbers are a bit surprising!).

I think that David Cohen is right, that they only have to fall in line. Given how high the "unacceptable" numbers are across the board, I've gotta believe the acceptability of most will only improve over time. In fact, given the high "unacceptability" factor of virtually unknowns Huckabee and Brownback, I've gotta say that most of those find them "unacceptable" because they have someone else in mind and no one except that person is acceptable to them.

Until, of course, that person is out of the race.

Posted by: R. Alex at July 19, 2006 11:40 PM

On the other hand, in Huckabee's case, asking a bunch of Republicans a question that involves the words "Arkansas", "governor" and "president" probably starts the poor guy off with two strikes to begin with.

Posted by: John at July 20, 2006 9:38 AM

McCain's numbers can only go up as he starts campaigning--Giuliani's can only go down.

Posted by: Timothy at July 20, 2006 10:20 AM

Rudy will do what Bush did: get to McCain's right on everything. And just as in 2000, the Arizona "maverick" will be too dense to understand what's happening to him until it's too late.

But the NYT will still say nice things about him, which is what McCain thinks is important.

Posted by: Casey Abell at July 20, 2006 10:26 AM

Timothy: His numbers aren't going anywhere. Everyone has seen enough of McCain to make up their minds already. Do you think he has some secret undisclosed well of charm? As to Rudy, his numbers have been going up the more people actually see him. He's already campaigning in the areas that are most dificult for him and they love him.

Posted by: Pepys at July 20, 2006 11:45 AM

Incidentally, I don't assume Rudy supports gay marriage. He supports gay rights generally, and is what might be termed gay-friendly, but may not support gay marriage. There are a lot of people like that in blue states, and in NYC in particular.

Posted by: Lisa at July 20, 2006 11:57 AM

Supporting gay rights doesn't mean one supports gay marriage. I support civil unions between two certifiable human beings, no cows need apply, with all the same responsibilities and privileges as married people.

I imagine Giuliani will be clever enough to speak to the issue to the satisfaction of those on all sides of the issue, emphasizing that he, like all the rest of us, are required to obey the law of the land regardless of his personal views.

Posted by: erp at July 20, 2006 3:30 PM

What I like about Rudy as a New Yorker is that he has the one part of Bush that I really like. You know what he thinks and what he will do. There is no question about it. The man states his position and will do what it takes to finish the job. That is what we need in a president and what Rudy would offer.

Posted by: dick at July 20, 2006 4:00 PM