February 7, 2006

SOMETIMES IT'S HARDEST TO ACCEPT VICTORY:

Fight Delay: INSIDE THE HAMAS STRATEGY (Ehud Yaari, 02.05.06, New Republic)

This is the concrete deal that Hamas is offering Israel: an open-ended armistice in exchange for a well-armed and independent Palestinian state; a prolonged cessation of hostilities, but no peace treaty and no resolution of the conflict's underlying issues. According to conversations with its leaders and its public statements, Hamas will recognize Israel as an "occupier state" while still rejecting its legitimacy. As a sign of their seriousness, the heads of Hamas have already quietly given assurances that they will unconditionally extend the tahdiah, the lull in attacks on Israel, that they painstakingly maintained in the year leading up to their stunning victory in the Palestinian Legislative Council elections on January 25. They will keep their terrorist weaponry on safety, without giving it up.

Unfortunately, it is likely that the Europeans will soon advise Israel to accept such a deal. The Egyptians are already arguing in private that an armistice without a peace treaty is preferable to another intifada. And, rest assured, down the road there will be Israelis who will urge taking the deal that is possible and giving up on the one that is necessary--that is, a final-status agreement incorporating Palestinian recognition of Israel. This is how Hamas hopes to achieve legitimacy and to consolidate its gains.

Israel, therefore, has a tough decision to make within weeks, if not days: test an extended ceasefire and allow Hamas to slide into power or prevent its worst enemies from taking control of the Palestinian Authority (P.A.).


It's only a bad deal if you think Israel could not overwhelmingly defeat any Palestine that eventually emerges, that Hamas will both quickly get Palestine's act together and remain militant, and that there are better options available.

Posted by Orrin Judd at February 7, 2006 5:55 PM
Comments

. . . or if you believe a nuclear Iran will supply these killers with a nuke or three. Sheesh! These animals must be eradicated in toto from the planet before any chance of peace arises.

Posted by: obc at February 7, 2006 9:01 PM

What lull in the attacks? That's flat out delusional.

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at February 7, 2006 9:28 PM

What attacks?

Posted by: oj at February 8, 2006 12:07 AM

Uh, OJ - several elderly women were stabbed by a Palestinian just yesterday (on a bus, I believe). One is dead.

And has the number of foiled attacks dropped dramatically in the past year? Not all that much, from what I have read.

Egypt wants Israel to take this deal because the alternative is much worse for them - possible IDF incursions right up to the Sinai. And the Egyptians know that if the Euros turn their backs on Hamas (and their wallets, and their TV cameras), Israel will have a much stronger position.

Plus, I am sure the prospect of the coming Syrian collapse doesn't give Mubarak warm fuzzy feelings.

Posted by: jim hamlen at February 8, 2006 12:37 AM

Yes, Israel's Defense ministry says Hamas has kept its word.

Posted by: oj at February 8, 2006 12:41 AM

Israel should be non-negotiable in its demands and state clearly that should terrorist attacks occur while Hamas is in power that they will consider the PA to have engaged in acts of war - and then move to directly strike the centers of Hamas power.

Palestinian morale is failing. If Israeli attacks come because of Hamas' intransigence and bellicosity, I suspect that many Palestinians will hold Hamas to blame for further misery. All the Israelis have to do is maintain some credibility that they are willing to accept a Palestinian state with real peace between them, and the Palestinians will look for a group that can deal.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at February 8, 2006 1:25 PM

Mr. Judd;

Israel stops attacks at the border on a daily basis. Not to mention the rocket attacks over the last couple of months. And Hamas has nothing to do with any of them?

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at February 8, 2006 2:16 PM

AOG:

Not according to Israel, which says they're Islamic Jihad and al Aqsa and others. Hamas has bigger fish to fry.

Posted by: oj at February 8, 2006 5:17 PM
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