ONE STEP AHEAD OF THE KNACKER (via Pepys):

Al Qaeda's Big Boast (DANIEL BENJAMIN and STEVEN SIMON, 1/25/06, NY Times)

The author of the 9/11 attacks did not, of course, think that his musings would jump-start a negotiation. Had Americans instead listened with the ears of those for whom the message was intended - Muslims around the world - they would have heard something very different. Instead of a weak Osama bin Laden, they would have heard a magnanimous one who could offer a truce because "the war in Iraq is raging, and the operations in Afghanistan are on the rise in our favor."

As Osama said himself: "...when people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse." With Iraqis chasing al Qaeda through the streets in anger and top guys being Hellfired in Pakistan, a plea for truce makes you the weak horse.

MORE:
General sees rift in Iraq enemy (Rick Jervis, 1/26/06, USA TODAY)

A deepening rift between radical foreign-led fighters and native Iraqi insurgents has turned violent, the top U.S. intelligence officer in Iraq says. That creates an opportunity for American forces to try to persuade local guerrillas to put down their weapons and join the political process, he says.
Iraqi soldiers arrest an insurgent following a raid in Baquba, northeast of Baghdad, on Jan. 24. Iraqi soldiers arrest an insurgent following a raid in Baquba, northeast of Baghdad, on Jan. 24.
Ali Yussef, AFP/Getty Images

"Now you actually have a wedge, or a split, between the Sunni population and al-Qaeda in Iraq," said Maj. Gen. Richard Zahner, deputy chief of staff for intelligence for multinational forces in Iraq. "It poses a significant crossroads for these groups as they look at where they head."

Al-Qaida Is Losing: There's desperation in Osama's voice. (Christopher Hitchens, Jan. 24, 2006, Slate)

I once hypothesized that Osama Bin Laden might be dead. The induction went like this: Proof of life is easy to furnish, but some of the tapes allegedly showing him could easily have been cobbled from earlier releases. Ergo, it mattered to al-Qaida to demonstrate that he was alive. Yet they lacked the ability to demonstrate it. Furthermore, Bin Laden used to be a highly loquacious man, pronouncing on everything from East Timor to Iraq, and seemed at a crucial juncture to have gone quiet.

This reasoning proved inadequate when he popped up during the last U.S. election and made a series of contemporary references, mainly (and ill-advisedly) drawn from Michael Moore's dreadful Fahrenheit 9/11. And we are now assured that the latest audiotape delivered to Al Jazeera has been authenticated also. If we suppose this to be true, then it nonetheless seems to be further evidence that al-Qaida is, as I argued last week, facing a very serious crisis.

Shortly after Sept. 11, 2001, there were arrogant and megalomaniac statements from men like Suleiman Abu-Ghaith, spokesman for al-Qaida, saying that this "storm" of violence would not cease falling, and warning all Muslims living in the West to avoid air travel and tall buildings. Then there came all kinds of bluster about how Iraq would be turned into a sea of fire if one coalition foot was allowed across the border. Then there was a long silence. And then the truce offers began, of which the second, delivered in a somewhat thin and reedy voice, was last week's.

We're still betting on dead at Tora Bora.

Posted by Orrin Judd at January 25, 2006 9:56 PM