July 19, 2005


China not capable of Taiwan attack: US report (ABC, 7/20/05)

China's rapidly modernising military could pose a long-term threat to other regional armed forces but its ability to project conventional power beyond its borders remains limited, the Pentagon said.

Be fun if they tried though.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 19, 2005 11:34 PM

. . . and the Soviet Union will not implode of its own accord. (early 1980's)

Posted by: obc at July 20, 2005 12:09 AM

It didn't stop Hitler because Hitler self-delusion that the West wouldn't fight and wouldn't fight hard had been enabled by assorted peace creeps such as Oxford pledgers and America firsters.

Fortunately for the cause of actual peace we have an American president who is perceived as a gun-slinging buckaroo who will make up cover stories about weapons of mass destruction when it suits his purposes.

Posted by: Lou Gots at July 20, 2005 12:38 AM

This is proof that a successful attack by China is imminent.

Since when have these ossified bureacracies ever been correct.

Where did they get their data, the CIA?

Posted by: BB at July 20, 2005 1:47 AM

The PRC could destroy Taiwan.

China cannot successfully invade and occupy Taiwan.

Not to mention, a significant percentage of the Coastal China economic boom has been due to Taiwanese investment and management.

The Taiwanese do not believe that the PRC is going to attack, and they're the ones who most ought to know.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at July 20, 2005 2:46 AM

The best part about it would be the presidential order confiscating Chinese balances in American banks and securities. About a Trillion dollars.

Posted by: Robert Schwartz at July 20, 2005 3:04 AM

China can successfully invade and occupy Taiwan, because the Taiwanese would surrender early in the fight. If Taiwan were defended by Koreans, then China would be out of luck.

That said, it would by a Pyrrhic victory. They're better off keeping it indepedent. Do they realize that?

Posted by: pj at July 20, 2005 7:37 AM


That is utter nonsense. First, the Taiwanese have a training level and a military esprit du corps analogous to that of Israel. Second, the Japanese language has all manner of insults based upon the notion of Korean cowardice in battle. 'Run like a Korean', 'cry like a Korean' are a couple of examples.

The PRC cannot invade and occupy Taiwan but it can blockade it effectively. It has enough airpower and more than enough submarine forces to do so. The wild card is the American reaction.

Posted by: bart at July 20, 2005 8:23 AM

The timing of this report seems to be an attempt to rebuff, or at least belittle, the statement by General Zhu Chenghu last week that China would launch a nuclear strike against the U.S. if it interferred with a Chinese attack on Taiwan.

On the other hand, all this sudden talk about the China-Taiwan-U.S. kerfuffle makes it a lot easier for folks in Congress and federal regulators to block China's attempt to outbid Chevron for Unocal.

Posted by: John at July 20, 2005 9:15 AM


True. The future war reparations are already "in the bank."

Posted by: Rick T. at July 20, 2005 9:35 AM


Never underestimate the ability of "businessmen" to blind themselves to political differences (in this case, old scores and pride).

Your argument certainly did not prevent the start of WWI.

Posted by: jim hamlen at July 20, 2005 10:02 AM