MICHAEL HOWARD & BOBBY McGEE:

Howard rattles Blair in new abortion battle: The Tory leader has won the Catholic Church's unsolicited backing. (FRASER NELSON, 3/16/05, The Scotsman)

WHERE would we be without Cosmo? Until now, the election had been all about taxation, immigration and shoulder operations. But the latest edition of Cosmopolitan magazine has plonked the incendiary issue of abortion into the middle of the campaign.

Tony Blair, Michael Howard and Charles Kennedy each relaxed on the Cosmo couch, pouring their hearts out to the women’s vote. Blair was equivocal, Kennedy admitted to being clueless and Howard wanted the abortion rules tightened.

Then, out of nowhere, the Roman Catholic Church declared that Mr Howard had answered best. All of a sudden, the Conservative leader has found himself on the right side of a growing argument.

The shellshock in Labour is palpable. First, Mr Blair was hijacked by Tory council-tax cuts, then by its stunt about Margaret Dixon’s cancelled shoulder operation, and now the Tories seem to be winning the Catholic vote.

Isn’t he, Blair, the one who attends mass every Sunday with his family? Isn’t he, by common consent, the most religious occupant of 10 Downing Street since the devout Gladstone was whipping himself in its study?

Could a Prime Minister who takes the Bible with him every time he travels abroad, and has as his Chancellor a son of the manse, be outflanked on Christian morality by a Conservative Party - where three of the top four men are Jewish?

Famously, this doesn’t matter in politics.

'Gordon to the rescue' as Labour support dips (JAMES KIRKUP, 3/16/05, The Scotsman)

LABOUR MPs are looking to Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, to salvage the party’s faltering election campaign with his Budget statement today.

Labour nerves were strained yesterday by an opinion poll showing that the Conservatives are gaining ground, boosted by their recent offensives on immigration and health.

The NOP poll put Labour’s support on 39 per cent, down three points in a month. The Tories were on 34 per cent, up four points.

The poll also showed a marginal lead for the Conservatives’ pledge of offering modest tax cuts while maintaining spending on health and education.

Labour has struggled to control the political agenda in recent weeks, a period during which Mr Brown has adopted a conspicuously low-key approach to campaigning.

Instead, Alan Milburn, Labour’s election chief and an ally of Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, has overseen a campaign that critics inside the party say has lacked focus and left Labour vulnerable to Tory attacks.

"We’ve definitely lost some ground lately," said one Labour MP. "The Budget should be a way to start regaining the initiative." Another described today’s statement as "Gordon to the rescue".

Two things happened in late January that liberated Mr. Howard: (1) the set of polls showing him leading the party to its worst showing ever with the bland mix of mush he was pitching; (2) the Iraqi elections. The latter got rid of the war as an issue. The former meant there was nothing to lose by drying off and going after immigration, National Health, taxes, abortion, etc. If he were to now declare that the Tories are opposed to even the idea of the EU they could make a show of this--particularly since the Republican advisors they've called on have brought in the sophisticated voter I.D. and turnout model that was used here so effectively. They're finally managing to get to Tony Blair's Right, helped greatly by Mr. Blair's troubles holding his own party together behind him.

Posted by Orrin Judd at March 16, 2005 7:58 AM