December 18, 2004

NEARLY?:

LOST IN THE FALLOUT: In 1983, he likely saved the world. Where is he now? (Mark Mcdonald, 12/17/04, Knight Ridder News Service)

The man who saved America -- and probably the world -- is living out his days on a measly pension in a dank apartment in a forlorn suburb of Moscow. He has a bad stomach, varicose veins and a mangy spotted dog named Jack the Ripper.

Stanislav Petrov has a small life now. He takes Jack for walks, makes a medicinal tea from herbs he picks in a nearby park and harangues his 34-year-old son about getting off the computer and finding a girlfriend.

There was a time when Petrov, now 65 and a widower, was almost larger than life. He was a privileged member of the Soviet Union's military elite, a lieutenant colonel on the fast track to a generalship. He was educated, squared away and trustworthy, and that's why he was in the commander's chair on Sept. 26, 1983, the night the world nearly blew up.

Tensions were high: Weeks earlier, on Sept. 1, Soviet fighters had shot down a Korean airliner, killing all 269 people aboard.

Petrov was in charge of the secret bunker where a team of 120 technicians and military officers monitored the Soviet Union's early-warning system. It was just after midnight when a new satellite array known as Oko, or The Eye, spotted five U.S. missiles heading toward Moscow. The Eye discerned that they were Minuteman II nuclear missiles.

Petrov's computer was demanding that he follow the prescribed protocol and confirm an incoming attack to his superiors. A red light on the computer that read START! kept flashing at him. And there was this baleful message: MISSILE ATTACK!

Petrov had written the emergency protocol himself, and he knew he should immediately pick up the hot line at his desk to tell his superiors that the Motherland was under attack.

He also knew that time was short. The senior political and military chiefs in the Kremlin would have only about 12 minutes to wake up, get to their phones, digest Petrov's information and decide on a counterattack.


Hard to believe there are still folks around who think Soviet equipment would have worked well enough to do much damage to anyone but themselves.

Posted by Orrin Judd at December 18, 2004 9:25 PM
Comments

I enjoy this site, but every so often you say something really bizzare and frankly, dumb.

The soviets had thousands of those missiles, 90 percent of them, at least, would have flown to their targets and detonated. Since they had multiple warheads designated for each American city, and since each of those warheads were dozens of times more powerful than the one that destroyed Hiroshima, you can bet they would have done some damage to 'someone besides themselves'.

Would Russia have survived the counterstrike? Nope. Would America? Nope.

Posted by: Amos at December 18, 2004 10:26 PM

I agree with Amos up to a point: if the Soviets had pressed the button, lots of warheads would have come our way. Even if only some had gone off anywhere near their targets, they'd have done lots of damage. We'd have survived, I think, but it would have been a huge catastrophe.

(I did once read some anti-nuke guy in the '80s arguing that since nobody had ever tested an ICBM over the pole, nobody could be sure how accurate they'd be, due to gravitational anomalies, etc.)

Posted by: PapayaSF at December 18, 2004 11:09 PM

I was working in Special Services at Mountain Bell in the summer of 1969 when we got a call from Cheyenne Mountain. It seems they had detected a warhead estimated to impact on Washington in 15 minutes. The Commander picked up his PTT telephone to alert NCA only to get a squeal which prevented any communications. The problem was finally cleared 20 minutes later.

IIRC, there was an article in the late 80's in Scientific American which estimated that, in the event of an attack, somewhere around 1/3 of U.S. land-based missiles would not function properly due to CCC and improper targeting problems. The failure rate of Soviet missiles would probably have been higher than this.

Posted by: jd watson at December 18, 2004 11:48 PM

When it somes to "political science", it pays to remember that by the mid-1980s, Scientific American barely qualified as either.

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at December 19, 2004 12:30 AM

OJ,
If only one of these missile got through, it would have been 9/11 times 100. It would have been a catastrophic event. Maybe the world would be better, maybe worse, but the threat, though overestimated, was real, and this man is a hero.

Posted by: Pat H at December 19, 2004 6:56 AM

Raoul, Has Scientific American changed since them? From what I understand their editorial position is still slanted left, to wit, their stand on "global warming."

Posted by: erp at December 19, 2004 7:44 AM

Yeah, that Soyuz thing almost never works, does it.

Erp:

SA was, for the most part, pretty darn good until the late '90s, then it went through a significant change in format and editorial policy straight into the dumpster.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 19, 2004 12:19 PM

OJ, which nation has a working launch vehicle able to service the International Space Station? What the Soviet/Russian engineers lacked in advanced technical sophistication compared to us, they made up for in reliable, robust design. Their aerospace engineers are world class.

Posted by: Robert Duquette at December 19, 2004 12:35 PM

Ever read James Oberg? They're space program has been a disaster.

Posted by: oj at December 19, 2004 12:39 PM

I've read Oberg.

Our space program has been a disaster, too.

Just day before yesterday, a US missile failed to take off when asked.

What does that tell you about all the rest of our missiles?

Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 19, 2004 4:44 PM

we failed in an attempt to do something no other nation dreams of doing. We'll get it right.

Posted by: oj at December 19, 2004 4:56 PM

Oh for God's sake, there was about ten times more mega-tonnage designated for each city than was needed to utterly raze it to the ground. Russia launches sattilites all the time, their rockets aren't sexy BUT THEY WORK.

This is a stupid argument, if WW3 had broken out nuclear we'd all be dead and every city you know utterly gone along with their populations.

Dead. No ifs, no buts. Dead.

Posted by: Amos at December 19, 2004 6:14 PM

Harry: I assume you're refering to the latest missile defense test. The interceptor launch was aborted due to monitoring equipment failure. It makes no sense to run a test producing no data -- that would just be a waste of money.

Jeff, Robert: Apples and oranges. It is one thing to launch a single missile with weeks of preparation and the luxury of postponing if necessary; it is quite another to launch a large number which have been sitting in silos for months on 15 minutes surprise notice.

Posted by: jd watson at December 19, 2004 6:55 PM

> a mangy spotted dog named Jack the Ripper

I wonder if he's named after the general in Dr. Strangelove.

Posted by: Guy T. at December 19, 2004 10:05 PM

Soviet equipment worked well enough to down KAL 007.

Posted by: ratbert at December 19, 2004 10:11 PM

They shot down KAL 007 with an ICBM?

Posted by: oj at December 19, 2004 10:19 PM

Guy T:
That was Brig. Gen. Jack D. Ripper, played by Sterling Hayden.

Posted by: jd watson at December 20, 2004 12:23 AM

Failed is failed, jd.

The USSR launched at least thousands of missiles, of which a few dozen were failures.

Too bad for Vegas that Orrin doesn't travel, the croupiers would live him as a customer.

Russian missiles, even when maintained by Egyptians, worked well against the Israeli navy. And Reagan was smart enough to be very afraid of them, which is why he wouldn't take on Libya in the Gulf of Sirte.

Posted by: Harry Eagar at December 20, 2004 12:48 AM

OJ:

You said: ... there are still folks around who think Soviet equipment would have worked ...

Soyuz, a Soviet era design, works very well.

JD Watson:

If 80% of a large number of Soviet ICBMs failed, the remaining 20% would have seen the end of the US.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 20, 2004 6:41 AM

Jeff:

Yes, Nazi technology works fine.

Posted by: oj at December 20, 2004 7:58 AM

If he had named his dog after General "Buck" Turgidson, then I'd be impressed.

Posted by: Chris Durnell at December 20, 2004 11:15 AM

OJ:

Worked fine for us too. I guess that means ours is no better than the Soviets?

As a couple other examples: Soviet fighter engines were a heck of a lot more powerful than ours, and their ejection seats put ours to shame. So much so that Martin Baker actually licensed some of their technology.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 20, 2004 11:55 AM

British engines.

Israel vs. Syria over Lebanon: 93-0

Posted by: oj at December 20, 2004 12:02 PM
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