December 27, 2004

MEET THE FOCKERS (VIA EVE TUSHNET)

Understanding Terror Networks (Marc Sageman, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 11/1/04)

But after 2001, when the U.S. destroyed the camps and housing and turned off the funding, bin Laden was left with little control. The movement has now degenerated into something like the internet. Spontaneous groups of friends, as in Madrid and Casablanca, who have few links to any central leadership, are generating sometimes very dangerous terrorist operations, notwithstanding their frequent errors and poor training. What tipped the Madrid group to operation was probably the arrest of some of their friends after the Casablanca bombing. Most of them were Moroccans and the Moroccan government asked the Spaniards to arrest several militants. So the group was activated, wanting to do something. Their inspiration—the document “Jihad al-Iraq”— probably was found on the Web. Six of its 42 pages argued that if there were bombings right before Spanish election, it could effect a change of government and the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq, the expulsion of the “far enemy” from a core Arab state. From conception to execution, the operation took about five weeks.

We hear that Al Qaeda plans its attacks for years and years. It may have before 9-11, but not anymore. Operatives in caves simply cannot communicate with people in the field. The network has been fairly well broken by our intelligence services. The network is now self-organized from the bottom up, and is very decentralized. With local initiative and flexibility, it’s very robust. True, two-thirds to three- quarters of the old leaders have been taken out, but that doesn’t mean that we’re home free. The network grows organically, like the Internet. We couldn’t have identified the Madrid culprits, because we wouldn’t have known of them until the first bomb exploded.

So in 2004, Al Qaeda has new leadership. In a way today’s operatives are far more aggressive and senseless than the earlier leaders. The whole network is held together by the vision of creating the Salafi state. A fuzzy, idea-based network really requires an idea-based solution. The war of ideas is very important and this is one we haven’t really started to engage yet.

This is a nice overview of who Al Qaeda is, what it does and how it is evolving in response to our successes in the war on terrorism. It is well-worth reading the whole thing. The take-home lesson won't be a surprise to anyone who has been paying attention: Al Qaeda has recruited most successfully from the Arab middle and upper classes. There is a reservoir of young men, alienated both from their own stifled culture and from the west, who turn towards extremism as a way to create a world from which, they think, they will not be alienated. Al Qaeda is, at bottom, a particularly silly form of utopianism.

I should also note that the first and best explication I have seen of the dynamic by which exposure to western culture turns young Muslim men into extremists came in a comment here by M. Ali Choudhury. If I remember correctly, he claimed to have been saved from extremism by soccer, which is at best a matter of opinion.

Posted by David Cohen at December 27, 2004 1:05 PM
Comments

"The network grows organically, like the Internet. We couldnt have identified the Madrid culprits, because we wouldnt have known of them until the first bomb exploded."

See, this is what bothers me about relying on terror watch lists at the airport and refusing to profile young Arab men. These guys aren't going to be on a list!

Posted by: Kay in CA at December 27, 2004 3:38 PM

Wot's Richard Clark to do?

Posted by: Genecis at December 27, 2004 8:30 PM

The parallels between Islamofacism and Communism are truly extraordinary. Think of it: with Communism, you had very talented middle- and upper-class intellectuals facing the death of God and spirituality, and sweeping social changes. They turned to a new faith, the God that failed, in a bid to seize power and save the Occident.

The Islamofacists are similarly faced with a dying God and sweeping changes. The philosophy driving the response seems different, but the results are startling similar: very talented middle- and upper-class intellectuals (e.g., Osama and all 19 of the 9/11 hijackers) bidding to seize power to save the Islamic realm.

Posted by: Seven Machos at December 28, 2004 1:45 AM

Seven:

That is a huge stretch, although you seem to be cooking the argument by using the term "Islamofascism". Who are you talking about exactly?

Communism was not a distortion or extreme variant of anything. It captured the fidelity of a lot more than just idle, rootless students. If anything, it was an expression of European utopianism. The whole point of this article is how feeble and isolated Al Qaeda might be and how nebulous and transient is its support. Seen much action from the Arab street lately?

Posted by: Peter B at December 28, 2004 7:59 AM

However you want to characterize Al Qeda, it's clearly a form of utopianism derivative of Islamic civilization.

Qutb = Marx
bin Laden = Lenin (This is an EASY one.)
There are millions of Arab fellow travelers.

The parallels are obvious.

Posted by: Seven Machos at December 28, 2004 9:52 AM

"There are millions of Arab fellow travelers."

If you mean people willing to do the terrorists' bidding out of conviction rather than fear, I suggest you don't know that is true anymore than I know it isn't.

Posted by: Peter B at December 28, 2004 11:16 AM

Fine. There are thousands of Arab fellow travelers.

Posted by: Seven Machos at December 28, 2004 12:41 PM

I'll give you a million. That's exactly 0.1% of the world's Muslim population.

Posted by: Peter B at December 28, 2004 2:08 PM

Islam is a warrior religion. It divides the world into the parts ruled by Islam(dar al-Islam) and the parts that need to be conquered by the sword.(dar al-Harb)

This is not a war we have chosen but is instead one our enemies have. In our best WT Sherman mode, we should give them full measure. Whether it is Sudanese Masai herdsmen, Timorese Christian subsistence farmers, Papuan pagan hunter gatherers, unescorted teenage girls in France, Norway or Australia, or people of all faiths working in office buildings in lower Manhattan, the Muslims see us all as targets. We should simply return the favor.

Blasting every Muslim population center from Dearborn Michigan to the Ceinture Rouge to Casablanca to Jakarta to beautiful downtown Mecca would save us a lot of money, time and grief. We can do it now or we will have to do it later when the forces of the diabolism that is Islam will be that much stronger, will have that much greater a presence in the citadels of civilization from Sydney to London to NYC. Those who encourage co-existence or appeasement of the Muslim subhumans are no better than Chamberlain or Daladier.

When confronted with pure evil, no compromise is possible. And make no mistake, we are faced with that confrontation today.

Posted by: Bart at December 28, 2004 8:06 PM

Bart:

Awfully clever of them to have laid so low for fifteen hundred years, no?

P.S. How do you "blast" the Muslim population of Dearborn? Daisycutters or door-to-door?

Posted by: Peter B at December 28, 2004 8:12 PM

The invasions of Europe, conquest of Spain, the Moors, the Seljuks, Ottomans, Moguls, Tatars and all their various predations just blew by you then. Not much on World History in the Great White North, eh?

As far as Dearborn is concerned, you round them up and ship them out, or you simply go the Daisy cutter route if need be. Nothing of value would be lost.

Posted by: Bart at December 28, 2004 8:30 PM

Oh, damn. The Seljuks and the Tartars. I completely forgot the Seljuks and the Tartars. You're right, Bart, let's waste them all--each and every one of them.

Posted by: Peter B at December 28, 2004 8:58 PM

That's Tatars, of course. Let's waste them too.

Posted by: Peter B at December 28, 2004 9:00 PM

So the destruction of Kievan Rus and the near-destruction of the Byzantine Empire don't matter to you? Do you have some kind of problem with Orthodox Christians?

If you do not understand the shiver that the term 'Tatar Yoke' gives to the spine of every ethnic Russian, then you cannot hope to understand Russian policy making, and that is a dire mistake as Russia still has the world's 2d largest nuclear arsenal.

The simple fact is that wherever and whenever the Muslims have gotten their act together they have set about to conquering others, imposing their will on other peoples, leaving destroyed cultures in their wake. You may not see Canada as having a culture worth defending, and in a nation that gave the world Margaret Atwood that is certainly understandable. However, there are people who do believe that Western Civilization has produced something of value and that it should be preserved at all costs.

Posted by: Bart at December 28, 2004 9:18 PM

Bart:

You are correct in noting the Quran has some particularly vicious elements. One could say the same of the Bible, or virtually any other Divinely Inspired text.

Fortunately, secularism has instilled sufficient doubt in Christianity to render the worst parts of the Bible "inoperative."

I suspect that for the vast majority of Muslims, parts of the Quran are equally "inoperative."

It simply isn't worth the damage to Western Civilization that would inevitably follow in train with the very anti-Western slaughter or deportation of that vast majority in the quest to eliminate the tiny minority.

Particularly since that minority can't hope to do any truly significant damage to the West.

Also, keep in mind that there is no hope that Muslims can get their act together in such a way as to counter the virulent life form that modernity has become.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 29, 2004 6:32 AM

Bart:

"...there are people who do believe that Western Civilization has produced something of value and that it should be preserved at all costs."

Agreed. How about you run off and tackle the Tatars and I'll stay here and "blast" the libertarians?


Posted by: Peter B at December 29, 2004 6:36 AM

Jeff:

"...the virulent life form that modernity has become."

I guess that's one way of putting it.

Posted by: Peter B at December 29, 2004 6:38 AM

Bart: In the last 22 years, Muslims qua Muslims have killed, what, less than 5000 Americans. Americans have killed, well, nobody really knows, but probably more than 100,000 Muslims.

Posted by: David Cohen at December 29, 2004 7:42 AM

Peter:

Graphic, perhaps. But even if, on the whole, you find modernity to be a good thing (I do), it would be a challenge to find a place on the planet it hasn't infected.

Posted by: Jeff Guinn at December 29, 2004 3:26 PM
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