October 22, 2004


U.S. Senate race as close as ever (Ivan Moore Research , October 19, 2004, KTUU TV)

In the positive-negatives, Tony Knowles was at 59.6 percent positive, 35.7 percent negative. Now he's at 60.3 percent positive, 36.5 percent negative.

The positive is up a bit and the negative is up a bit, but continuing a pattern that goes back to July. Consistent numbers for Tony.

Two weeks ago, Lisa stood at an almost campaign low of 49.8 percent positive, 42.7 percent negative.

The difference between Lisa's positive of 49.8 percent and Tony's positive of 59.6 percent two weeks ago had risen to its highest point in the campaign, at just under 10 points.

But now, 57.3 percent positive, 38.5 percent negative. Lisa's positive rating up by 7.5 points, her negative down by four -- a huge change in just two weeks.

To the horserace. Right now it stands with Tony Knowles still in the lead with 46.9 percent, Lisa a little closer at 45.3 percent.

While the Democrats will certainly pick up IL, this is the only other current GOP seat where you'd have said they were favored. If Ms Murkowski can just keep it this close she may be able to ride the President's huge margin.

Posted by Orrin Judd at October 22, 2004 9:36 PM

Any idea of what drove the big increase in Murkowski's positives? In OK Coburn was trailing Carson but seems to be gaining a solid lead which should help the GOP hold the seat there - perhaps Alaska will show the same with Murkowski pulling ahead at the end. And yes hard to believe Murkowski loses if Bush wins Alaska by over 20tps.

Posted by: AWW at October 22, 2004 10:16 PM

Murkowski is a social libertarian like most Alaskans.

Posted by: Bart at October 22, 2004 10:49 PM

You refer, I presume, to the huge margin between Bush's claims and reality?

Posted by: Rick Perlstein at October 23, 2004 11:35 AM


Yes, that's good for 30 points in Alaska.

Posted by: oj at October 23, 2004 11:39 AM