September 29, 2004


Bush gains ground in Fla.; Kerry leads in Ohio (USA Today, 9/29/04)

Likely Voters

FL Sep 24-27 OH Sep 25-28 PA Sep 25-28

Kerry/Edwards (D) 43 47 46

Bush/Cheney (R) 52 49 49

Ahead in PA and FL isn't even competitive.

With Bush Advancing, Missouri May Be a Battleground All but Conquered (R. W. APPLE Jr., Sept. 29, 2004, NY Times)

Is Missouri a swing state that has already swung? So it seems to many people here on the eve of the first presidential debate.

John Kerry has not visited the state in nearly three weeks and may not be back, local Democrats say, until the second debate, scheduled for Oct. 8 at Washington University in St. Louis. This is no accident of scheduling.

Its 11 electoral votes are certainly a prize worth winning, and Missouri was listed as a battleground state by both parties as the campaign began. It has symbolic significance as well. In every presidential election over the last century, with the single exception of 1956, Missouri has gone with the winner, usually by a margin closely approximating the national figure.

-Bush's lead stronger, poll says: Kerry behind by 10 points in state, according to Harris (ALAN J. BORSUK, Sep. 29, 2004, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
Evidence that President Bush has moved into a notable lead over Sen. John Kerry in the important Wisconsin presidential contest increased Wednesday with the release of a fresh poll.

The Wisconsin Policy Research Institute, a local think tank, released a poll it commissioned by Harris Interactive, a major national polling organization, that found the Republican incumbent with a 10 percentage point lead over his Democratic challenger, 50% to 40%, with Ralph Nader - whose presence on the actual Wisconsin ballot remains uncertain - with 6%. The poll was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sunday.

The poll results were in line with others released recently that showed Bush with a lead in Wisconsin, including a Badger Poll done in cooperation with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel from Sept. 15 to 21 that had Bush up by 14 points and an ABC News poll from Sept. 16 to 19 that had Bush up by 10 points.

Double digits is trouble for Russ Feingold.

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 29, 2004 10:42 PM

Yet, desperate to make it look close, USA Today--going against every other poll and even their own Likely Voter numbers--headlines Kerry as ahead in Ohio.

Nader should start making a stink--Kerry can't win this, but the media doesn't want to admit it.

Posted by: Timothy at September 29, 2004 10:45 PM

Headline for USSR Today should read that Kerry statistically ties Bush in Ohio, since Bush is behind among registered voters but slightly ahead among likely voters.

Reminiscent of this recent headline. I smell desperation.

Posted by: Matt Murphy at September 29, 2004 10:54 PM

Other polls have shown Bush with almost a double digit lead in OH. However, this makes the FL and PA results questionable. As for Missouri it has been reported that Kerry stopped advertising there. And good news for Wisconsin if Bush can put it in his column and bring along a Senate seat that not many saw as possible.

Posted by: AWW at September 29, 2004 11:20 PM

All your base are belong to us.

Posted by: jd watson at September 29, 2004 11:29 PM

Enough with the swing, how about the swung....the swung has choked itself (Monty Python, by election

Posted by: narciso at September 29, 2004 11:42 PM

If the Bush/Kerry race starts to reach blowout proportions indicating a Bush walkover, expect to see a major shift of votes to Nader as the Birkenstock crowd start mincing away from the ketchup gigolo. Should signs of this be observed before the election, expect to see the press full of stories about how phony Nader's persona is and how his family has enriched itself from his activism over the last few decades, along with stories detailing his obnoxiousness, his racism, sexism, sexual issues, etc.

Posted by: Bart at September 30, 2004 7:32 AM

How is it that Kerry leads in Ohio when its 49/47 Bush?

Posted by: AML at September 30, 2004 11:05 AM

How do the polls differentiate likely vs. regiserted voters?

Posted by: Perry at September 30, 2004 11:08 AM


If you follow the link they used registered voters to give Kerry the lead in the headline, but Bush leads amonmg likely votyers.


That's a controversial question. Typically they ask if you voted in '02 & '00, etc. But people lie cause they don't want to seem like slackers. If you ask them who their Senators & Reps are and where they vote & whatnot you can narrow them further.

Posted by: oj at September 30, 2004 11:13 AM