September 28, 2004


House Odds (Charlie Cook, Sept. 28, 2004, National Journal)

In this polarized political environment, many insiders predict fewer ticket splitters, putting House incumbents who sit in the "wrong"
district in jeopardy. Think of Republicans in Connecticut or Democrats
in South Dakota.

This summer, House Democrats saw Kerry's lead in polls as an opportunity
to link blue-state GOP incumbents with an unpopular president.
Democratic challengers wanted to make races referenda on Bush, while
Republican incumbents in marginal districts focused on local issues. [...]

So where does this leave House Democrats going into the final month
before the election?

At this point, Democrats have just seven seats in serious jeopardy: five
Texas incumbents -- Reps. Martin Frost, Charles Stenholm, Max Sandlin,
Nick Lampson, and Chet Edwards -- and open seats in northern Kentucky's
4th District and southern Louisiana's 7th District. Even if Democrats
lose only four of those races, they will need to find 17 GOP-held seats
just to get to a bare majority. Republicans start with a one-seat
pick-up in Texas because Democrats are not competing for a newly created
district. [...]

Bottom line: The scenario today suggests that Republicans could gain or
lose as many as three seats. That would give Republicans a majority of
as many as 233 seats or as few as 227 seats.

So, if there's more straight party voting and few or no Blue States then what happens?

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 28, 2004 12:15 PM

I predict that the GOP will count 238 members in the House of Rep's in Jan. '05, 2.

Posted by: Michael Herdegen at September 28, 2004 7:35 PM

>So, if there's more straight party voting and
>few or no Blue States then what happens?

Those 10,000 lawyers the Kerry campaign has lined up swing into action, that's what happens.

"One man with a briefcase can steal more than a hundred men with guns."
-- Mario Puzo, The Godfather

Posted by: Ken at September 28, 2004 7:49 PM

Then Charlie Cook spends another year scratching his head and trying to figure out how any Republican ever wins anywhere (how's that "Democrat-trending New Hampshire" looking now?).

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