September 13, 2004


Bush widens Wisconsin lead over Kerry, poll shows (USA Today, 9/13/04)

President Bush has widened his lead over Democrat John Kerry in the battleground state of Wisconsin, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows.
President Bush, discussing health care Monday in Michigan, widened his lead in Wisconsin.

The week before the Republican National Convention in New York City, Bush held a 3-percentage point lead over his challenger Kerry. Now, the poll shows Bush has 8 percentage points.

Mr. Kerry can't win WI--the question is: can the Democrats hold the Senate seat?

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 13, 2004 8:31 PM

Holy crap 8% in Wisconsin. Guess Kerry won't be going to "Lambert Field" again.

Posted by: AML at September 13, 2004 8:35 PM

You mean Kery won't be there to throw out the first pitch at a Packards game?

Posted by: Raoul Ortega at September 13, 2004 9:03 PM

If Senator McCain doesn't plan a final run for the presidency in 2008, we may see his travel itenerary make a few detours to the beer, cheese and sausage region of the nation to bail out his campaign finance reform pal sometime during October.

Posted by: John at September 13, 2004 9:07 PM

Saw earlier today some election projectors moving WI back into the Kerry camp (probably based on a Zogby poll). This poll shows WI is moving firmly into the Bush camp and will probably be followed by MN, IA, NM.
John - conservatives (and even regular GOP) are ticked off at McCain enough now - if he crosses party lines to help Feingold it won't be pretty.

Posted by: AWW at September 13, 2004 10:20 PM

Even Zogby has Kerry knotted in Maine (see above). A win in Wisconsin forces Kerry to win Florida AND Ohio--basically impossible barring significant external events. The Republicans' biggest problem may be the late primary (9/14). Had they cleared the field, even a weak candidate would have a good shot at Feingold, a principled folk-hero lib who seems more interested in leftist principle than pragmatism (ie, getting things done). Heck, a Dem tide is all that saved him against Mark Neumann in '98--and that tide is out.

Posted by: AC at September 13, 2004 10:33 PM

Can't figure out why John-john are spending so much time here in 3 electoral-vote Nevada. Don't think they'll win here. Lot of money spent on ads excoriating Bush for signing the Yucca Mtn Nuc storage facility legislation, and ,as much again raving about the Dutch plan for keeping reefer out of the hands of children (and in the hands of adults). What an odd election.

Posted by: ed at September 13, 2004 11:56 PM


That math isn't quite correct. Starting from the Bush v. Gore scenario, with adjusted Electoral College totals, Bush has 278 Electoral Votes to Kerry's 260 votes.

If you give Wisconsin to Bush, he goes upt to 288. But, he will still loose if he looses either Florida (27) or Ohio (20).

Actually, the Electoral College Map is very frightening to me. There are several unfortunate scenarios that could elect Kerry. Bush cannot loose: Ohio, Florida, Missouri or Tennessee, Virginia, Arizona or North Carolina.

Now for Bush, if he could peel off any two of Iowa, Minnesotta, Washington, or Wisconsin, Bush can loose Ohio and still win. He'd have to pick up three of those to win without Florida.

So, unless things change a great deal, this race is going to come down to Ohio and Florida.

Posted by: AML at September 14, 2004 12:02 AM

my wife just said she'd vote for teh Colorado EV apportionment initiative. When I pointed out that would mean no Prez candidate ever would campaign in Co, she said "oh, right" and said that changed her vote. I sure as heck hope the Reps. are advertising that argument there. Anybody in Colorado know if there is a two-sided debate out there?

Posted by: rds at September 14, 2004 12:37 AM

AML - I think your math is off. If it is Bush 278 and Kerry 260 and you give Wisconsin (10) to Bush he goes up to 288 and Kerry goes down to 250 (remember there is a fixed number of EV). With a spread of 38 Bush could then lose either Florida or Ohio and win as AC suggests. You are right that Bush cannot lose the states you list but polls show only Florida and Ohio (barely) are in battleground status while there is a whole bunch of Kerry states (IA, MN, WI, PA, NJ, NM) where Bush is close or even ahead.
Ed - I think NV has 5 electoral votes. I think polls still show this one close so Kerry is working on it and maybe he still thinks the race will be close and he needs every EV.

Posted by: AWW at September 14, 2004 8:22 AM

No, if you go below 269 you can't win. 269 in Bush's collumn would mean that Kerry also has 269, and the race goes to the House of Reps.

If you are at 288 (Red States Plus Wisconsin) and you go down 20 from losing Ohio that puts you at 268 -- Bush loses. Since Florida is 27 votes, Bush would also loose if he lost Florida.

Posted by: AML at September 14, 2004 8:56 AM

AWW - you castigate AML for a math mistake that you then make yourself. A spread of 38 means that Bush can only lose half of that (19) because every one he loses is one more for Kerry. Since both OH and FL are more than 19, a loss of either is more than the spread.

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at September 14, 2004 11:02 AM

AOG - you're right, my error, although I didn't think my tone was "castigating".
I still think Bush will win comfortably unless there is a dramatic change in the campaign over the next 7 weeks (like Bush showing up for the debates naked).

Posted by: AWW at September 14, 2004 12:17 PM

AWW -- the President will be in jammies, for the blogvote.

Posted by: old maltese at September 14, 2004 3:02 PM
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