September 27, 2004


October Surprises: Five weeks and counting. (John J. Miller, 9/27/04, National Review)

Karl Rove insists that Republicans will pick up Senate seats this year, and Democratic senator Jon Corzine of New Jersey says control of the chamber is up for grabs. We'll know the truth in five weeks. Here's the latest rundown on the races, updating a previous report filed during the GOP convention.

Though his own analyses appear to indicate as much as a 6 seat pickup, Mr. Miller is sticking with 2. The question occurs: who was the last presidential candidate who had to return to a job in the Congress after losing? If Mr. Kerry doesn't resign to try and give his campaign a badly needed boost, he'll head back for the lame duck session in November as a junior senator of the minority party, a minority that conceivably won't even have the filibuster anymore. Does the widow Heinz really want to be married to a senator that badly?

Posted by Orrin Judd at September 27, 2004 9:05 AM

Why isn't Kerry dropping his senate run?

Thune is still trailing...

Posted by: neil at September 27, 2004 9:31 AM

Neil - Thune and Daschle are neck and neck, several recent polls put Thune ahead. Daschle may pull it out due to seniority/questionable indian votes but Thune definitely has a shot.
And even if Thune fails the GOP has a lot of other pick up possibilities as noted in the article.
Kerry hasn't resigned his senate because that would reflect taking a stand on an issue, something Kerry seems incapable of doing.

Posted by: AWW at September 27, 2004 9:36 AM


He will.

Thune and Daschle are swapping three point leads which means Bush will easily carry Thune into office.

Posted by: oj at September 27, 2004 9:41 AM

McGovern. After getting trounced by Nixon, he managed to get himself reelected to a 3rd term in the Watergate year of 1974 before getting trounced in the Reagan landslide of 1980 by Larry Pressler. An apt analogy.

Posted by: Taylor at September 27, 2004 10:04 AM

Kerry isn't going to quit. He wants to testify before Congress as a sitting senator, to damn the Bush administration for anything that pops into his head. He wants to have a reprise of his glory in 1971, and then he wants to go to his podium on the Senate floor and continue the harangue. It's all he lives for. And if Tereza dumps him, he'll have to stay: where else could he find work?

Posted by: jim hamlen at September 27, 2004 10:28 AM

I'm sticking with +4 (GA/IL offset, GOP holds OK, AK, CO, picks up SC, NC, FL, LA. GOP pickups of SD, WI, WA, and CA are also possible but less likely.
The current concerns seem to be OK (polls show race tied, GOP candidate has stumbled), NC (Burr still trailing), FL (Martinez trailing), and LA (Vitter may not get 50% and may then lose runoff).
Miller had the GOP losing seats in 2002 (instead of +2) so he may be being too pessimistic here.

Posted by: AWW at September 27, 2004 11:41 AM

I'd say South Dakota is a more likely pickup than North Carolina or Louisiana, and Oklahoma is dubious as Coburn is not a politician and is prone to statements that out of context look bad. If the GOP does better than +2, it will be solely because Bush has coattails.

Posted by: pj at September 27, 2004 12:04 PM

Mr. Judd;

I still think you're living in a fantasy world if you think Senator Kerry won't be a Senator for life. He won't resign and he'll win re-election to the Senate.

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at September 27, 2004 12:09 PM

I disagree. I don't think Kerry would win reelection to the senate.

If this campaign continues to play out the way it's going, Kerry will be forever tainted as a big-time loser who ran one of the worst campaigns in history.

If nothing else, the way he lost, undisciplined and unprincipled, will provide a template for how to run against him in Democratic primaries, to say nothing of how Republicans will manhandle him.

Heck, they'll be coming out of the woodwork to take on Kerry.

Posted by: H.D. Miller at September 27, 2004 12:21 PM

the fact we have a shot at 60 is like the marlins winning the world series last year. In order to do that we need alot of somewhat unthinkable events to happen, one of them would be the great fortune of daschle losing, he who is the 2nd or third most loathsome politician alive be replaced by a great guy in Thune. If Kerry resigned, and lost, of course, he would be right up there with Daschle as being escorted out of public politics. These two events are just too good to be true. Politics happens in dribs and drabs, as it has over the last ten years for our conservative cause. To get to 60 and escort Daschle and Kerry out is storybook, like the Marlins, but unrealistic.

Posted by: neil at September 27, 2004 6:14 PM
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