June 19, 2004

THE BATTLEGROUND IS ALL BLUE:

Bush Leads In All-Important Florida (CPOD, Jun. 17, 2004)

George W. Bush could carry the key state of Florida in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Survey USA released by WFLA-TV. 50 per cent of respondents would vote for the Republican incumbent, while 43 per cent would support prospective Democratic nominee John Kerry.

There's not a state he carried that the President will even have to defend hard while Senator Kerry already looks dubious in places like PA, NJ, WA, etc.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 19, 2004 8:49 PM
Comments

I'm not getting too hyped up over any polls until after Labor Day but Florida should be fairly safe for Bush unless he redeports Elian or the seniors believe the "Bush is cancelling your Social Security checks" ad the Dems will be running.

Posted by: AWW at June 19, 2004 10:57 PM

Mr. Judd;

Didn't Kerry basically surrender Florida just a few days ago?

Posted by: Annoying Old Guy at June 20, 2004 9:09 AM

I seem to remember seeing some Ohio polls that had Kerry ahead, and it's still early to take any of this too seriously, but yes, even at his lowest approval rating, Bush had more states from Gore/Kerry, than Kerry had taken from Bush.

Also, again, even at his lowest popularity, Kerry's was even lower. At this point, the only reason people have to vote for Kerry is "he's not Bush" if the war and/or the economy are perceived to be as bad in November as they were perceived to be in May, that'll be enough. It's more likely though that both will be better and be perceived better come Nov.

Posted by: MarkD at June 21, 2004 8:48 PM
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