June 30, 2004

AS THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MANY JOBS HE CREATED, RATHER THAN LOST:

More U.S. jobs seen in June, buoying Bush (Andrea Hopkins, June 30, 2004, Reuters)

U.S. employment likely surged again in June, taking gains this year to some 1.4 million jobs and bolstering President George W. Bush's economic record ahead of the November election, analysts said onWednesday.

Economists believe 250,000 jobs were created this month, virtually matching May's jump of 248,000, though the unemployment rate probably will not budge from 5.6 percent because newly hopeful job-seekers are returning to the job market.

"I think the gains will be quite widespread again, and as we saw in April and May, we are likely to create slightly more higher-paying than lower-paying positions," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Securities.

Posted by Orrin Judd at June 30, 2004 3:42 PM
Comments

The jobs question has become so tangled in politics that it is meaningless. However, the civilian labor force has grown by more than 3.5 million jobs since January '01.

Posted by: David Cohen at June 30, 2004 4:10 PM

Sorry. Bad link. Go here, and you'll be able to play around with the data.

Posted by: David Cohen at June 30, 2004 4:12 PM

So given their track record, if the economists believe that 250,000 jobs were created in June, we can safely assume that it was likely closer to 300,000...and I bet there's a dip in the Unemployment Rate too.

Posted by: Robert Modean at June 30, 2004 7:20 PM

Robert - let's hope so. But the unexpected drop in Q1 GDP (4.4 to 3.9) and drop in Chicago PMI today (65 expected, actual 56) shows that the surprise may be on the downside.

Posted by: AWW at June 30, 2004 7:46 PM
« MAD, QUITE MAD | Main | THE DANGER OF LISTENING TO PAUL KRUGMAN: »