November 27, 2002


CAN JOHN KERRY WIN NEW YORK? (Patrick Ruffini, 11.27.02)
Can Howard Dean win California? These are the questions that are going to have to be answered if the Democratic nominee in 2004 is going to be anybody but Al Gore.

There's a reasonable case to be made that 2004 may turn into a perfect storm for Democrats. The frontrunner is weak enough, and his potential challengers strong enough, for Gore to be toppled. This assumption is underscored by the findings of a recent ARG New Hampshire poll, which finds Gore's ballot test in the state far worse than at this point in the 2000 cycle.

If you read on, the numbers for Howard Dean in particular are very significant. Forty-five percent of Democratic voters have heard of him, and he has a fav/unfav of 29%/2%. That's political gold for Dean. Not only is awareness of Dean converting nicely into personal favorability, but the guy has no negatives. Dean scores at 2% in the ballot test, but there's nothing preventing that number from going up. The only other candidate who comes close to having a favorability ratio this good is John Kerry, at 44% positive, 7% negative. I can easily see the New Hampshire primary becoming a three-way slugfest between Gore, Kerry, and Dean, with all three equally likely to win.

As Mr. Ruffini goes on to say: from there it gets interesting. Posted by Orrin Judd at November 27, 2002 8:22 AM
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