March 4, 2020

Posted by orrinj at 6:32 PM


Sanders and Trump Stare Into Their Graves (JOHN F. HARRIS, 03/04/2020, Politico)

Biden summoned high turnout from precisely the diverse constituencies of African-Americans, suburbanites, working-class and older voters that another aging pol more at home with coalition politics than movement politics--House Speaker Nancy Pelosi--marshalled to re-take the House in 2018.

In the near-term, Biden's achievement indicated that Sanders has no convincing path to defeating this coalition with young people or previous non-voters. The only formula for his revival would involve Sanders somehow managing to encroach on support Biden won so handily from these groups. If not, it's shovel time, no matter how long the nomination contest slogs on (which likely will be quite a while).

For the general election, the implications of Tuesday are equally urgent for Trump. Voter turnout in the primaries was up from 2016 in almost every state--in Virginia, for instance, turnout increased by more than two-thirds. The overwhelming evidence is that it is Trump, not any Democrat, who is stimulating this surge. Increased energy on the Democratic side, in the likely event this holds through the fall, means Trump must also stimulate new voters or it is shovel-time for him, too.

Posted by orrinj at 12:03 PM


Joe Biden's winning coalition: Black and suburban voters (Katelyn Burns,  Mar 4, 2020, Vox)

Support from black voters translated across the South, with Biden notching double-digit victories in Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, Arkansas, and Oklahoma. According to Washington Post exit polling data, Biden carried voters who care most about race relations, with a median 48 percent support across Super Tuesday states.

Black support explains some of Biden's success Tuesday, but surprise victories in Texas and Massachusetts suggested there's something else going on with Biden's voting coalition.

In the 2018 midterms, Democrats swept into power in the House on the strength of overwhelming support not just from black voters, but from suburban white women voters as well. Exit polling from Tuesday suggests that Biden's base tracks closely with the 2018 blue wave.

In Texas, Biden carried the Dallas and Houston suburbs. He also carried nearly every county in Virginia, including northern Virginia and the Washington, DC suburbs. That pattern was repeated throughout much of the Super Tuesday states.

The Trump coalition is essentially those on meth or Viagra.
Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AM


Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AM


Feds: Mystery witness will implicate 'Putin's chef' in election interference (JOSH GERSTEIN, 03/04/2020, Politico)

U.S. prosecutors say they have a witness who will directly implicate a Russian businessman known as "Putin's chef" in schemes to carry out election interference overseas.

The mystery witness is prepared to testify at a criminal trial set to open in Washington next month in a case special counsel Robert Mueller brought accusing three Russian companies and 13 Russian individuals of meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, a prosecutor declared at a recent court hearing.

The anticipated testimony will focus on the most prominent Russian national charged in the indictment, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a St. Petersburg restaurateur who enjoys close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin and who has expanded his business empire to become a key contractor for the Russian military.

Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AM


Biden makes a mockery of Sanders' main argument for his campaign (RYAN LIZZA, 03/04/2020, Politico)

On Tuesday night Joe Biden engineered one of the most monumental political comebacks in the history of party primaries. The scale of his Super Tuesday rout over three well-funded and hyper-organized Democrats -- Bernie Sanders, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren -- has no comparison.

Biden won every state in the South by double digits: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Virginia, Oklahoma. He won Minnesota, the only contest in the Midwest, by 9 points. He narrowly won Texas. In the northeast he won Massachusetts, the home state of Elizabeth Warren and remained competitive in Maine, where the race was still too close to call but where Biden had a slight lead.

Sanders won similarly lopsided victories in his home state of Vermont and Utah, the two smallest prizes of the day, and in Colorado. Sanders did best in California, where as of late Tuesday, he was up by almost 10 points, but not enough for a delegate blowout. By the end of the night the most unthinkable outcome started to seem likely: Biden may be the delegate leader when all the votes are counted.

Biden's miraculous turnaround came about for four reasons. First, his support among African-American voters held steady across the country. Biden won those voters in every state in which exit polls registered a significant black population, from a low of 33% in California to a high of 72% in Alabama. Sanders did better with black voters outside the South, but he failed to improve over his 2016 numbers.

Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AM


The overlooked ideology behind 21st century far-right terror (Rakib Ehsan, 3/03/20, CapX)

With the threat of far-right terrorism becoming increasingly globalised, the new report from the Henry Jackson Society analysing three far-right manifestos produced in 2019 is extremely timely. These documents - authored by suspected far-right terrorists Brenton Tarrant, John Earnest, and Patrick Crusius - while incorporating some familiar theories, also contain themes which suggest that the ideological complexities associated with contemporary far-right terrorism have been somewhat neglected.

What binds together the documents are classic white replacement theories, which are gaining serious traction in the online space. At the heart of these theories is the belief that white people of European heritage are being 'replaced' in parts of Europe, North America, and Australasia - in both a socio-demographic and socio-cultural sense. While Tarrant, an Australian, fleshes out that his parents are of English, Scottish, and Irish stock, Earnest, an American - referring to his "magnificent bloodline" - emphasises that he is of English, Irish, and Nordic heritage.

Elements of the far-right are also of the view that these processes of change have been deliberately engineered by mainstream pro-diversity politicians who kowtow to a multiculturalist ideology and the principle of 'cultural enrichment'. Earnest, in his aggressively anti-Semitic manifesto titled An Open Letter, blames an all-powerful international Jewry for "the meticulously planned genocide of the European race". This is supposedly attempted through a number of methods, such as bankrolling pro-immigration mainstream political parties.

But there are ideological elements of the manifestos which have been overlooked - or perhaps ignored - by much of the progressive mainstream media. What emerges from the analysis is a clear anti-corporation sentiment - a rally against the perceived excesses of free-market capitalism and globalised markets.

The hatred is driven in large part by the adaptations businesses make to remain competitive, helping to develop the economy globally and marketing to an increasingly diverse set of consumers. It's why Trumpbots who claim not to buy into the whole agenda still defend his war on business. 

Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AM


Joe Biden wins Massachusetts primary, NBC News projects, a crushing blow to Elizabeth Warren (Kevin Breuninger, 3/04/20, CNBC)

Former Vice President Joe Biden will win the Massachusetts Democratic primary, according to an NBC News projection.

The result is a crushing blow to rival Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who represents the state.

Posted by orrinj at 12:00 AM


If given $100, half of young Africans would use it to start a business, survey says (Vicky McKeever, 3/04/20, CNBC)

Around half of young people across Africa said that if they were offered $100, they would use it to start a business, a survey has shown. 

This entrepreneurial spirit was revealed in a study by the Ichikowitz Family Foundation charity, with just over three-quarters of the 4,200 youngsters surveyed saying they would like to start a new business in the next five years. 

Some 17% of those questioned said they wanted to do so in the retail sector, while 10% of respondents said they would look to either start a business in technology or agriculture. 

Social entrepreneurship was also a popular theme among young people in Africa, according to the survey, with 63% saying that their idea for a business or social enterprise would benefit those living in their community.